HOW ODDS

Don Jr.’s Betting Pals Mysteriously Delete Carlson Odds

A prediction market advised by the president’s son posted an extraordinary claim about the MAGA rebel.

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A betting giant advised by Donald Trump Jr. has mysteriously deleted a post claiming his father’s nemesis Tucker Carlson had an 87 percent chance of facing federal criminal charges this year. Kalshi made the extraordinary claim on X on Friday, alongside a photograph of the former Fox News star and a graph suggesting his odds had suddenly rocketed, the Daily Beast’s sister Substack, PunchUp, reports. “JUST IN: 87% chance Tucker Carlson is charged with a federal crime this year,” the post declared. But the actual betting market told a very different story. According to historical figures reviewed by PunchUp, Carlson’s odds had hovered around eight percent for months, peaking at approximately 27 percent in March. By Monday, they stood at just seven percent.

The March spike followed Carlson’s claim that the CIA was preparing to refer him to the Justice Department over his communications with Iranian contacts. The former Fox News host, who has bitterly opposed Trump’s war with Iran, denied wrongdoing. Kalshi’s post vanished after PunchUp alerted Carlson to it on Friday. Neither Carlson nor Kalshi responded to requests for comment. Trump Jr. joined Kalshi as an adviser in January 2025, receiving equity then valued at approximately $300,000. His investment firm, 1789 Capital, has also committed roughly $500 million to rival Polymarket.

Tom Latchem exposes the secrets, scandals, and stories that powerful people and institutions want to keep under wraps. Follow all of his reporting at PunchUp on Substack.