COLLATERAL DAMAGE

Trump Signs Political Death Warrants for Blue State Republicans Key to GOP Majority

The president has sparked a national redistricting war that is poised to destroy the careers of some House Republicans in Democratic states.

The very Republicans who helped President Donald Trump secure his majority in the House now face the possibility that their districts will be eliminated after the president sparked an arms race over congressional maps.

Last month, the president called for “just a simple redrawing” of Texas’ political districts, which are already heavily gerrymandered, to help Republicans pick up five more House seats in next year’s midterms.

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As Democratic governors vow to fight back, Republicans in California and New York—who were crucial to the GOP winning the House in 2020 and 2022—could end up as collateral damage, Politico reported.

“If Texas wants to rig the maps, California will make sure they pay a price,” California Gov. Gavin Newsom told the outlet. “They want to steal five seats? We’ll match and secure more—and turn the tables on their entire strategy.”

Illinois Gov. JB Pritzker and New York Gov. Kathy Hochul have also threatened to retaliate against the Texas plan as Republicans look to mine additional seats in Ohio, Missouri, and Indiana.

“This creates a situation where you’re going to lose blue state members, which over the long haul are critical to keeping the majority,” Republican Rep. Mike Lawler of New York, whose seat could be at risk, told Politico.

But even though Trump personally started the redistricting war, the GOP lawmakers caught in the crossfire have been careful not to blame him.

“He was not given the full picture of the ultimate consequences,” Rep. Kevin Kiley, a California Republican whose district is also vulnerable, told Politico. “The onus is on the speaker, along with the minority leader, to get this chaos under control.”

Kiley said he had shared his concerns with House Speaker Mike Johnson and with the House GOP campaign arm, but party officials have refused to try to de-escalate the fight. Instead, they’ve promised legal, political, and financial support as things inevitably get ugly.

That outcome was all but inevitable, according to Politico, because Johnson needs Trump’s support to serve as House speaker.

State Democratic lawmakers in Texas have been trying to stave off the redistricting plan by leaving the state, depriving the Texas House of a quorum and thus making it impossible for Republicans to hold a vote on the maps.

Generally speaking, it’s up to each state’s legislature to decide how the state will draw its own political map. Some states keep the process in the hands of lawmakers, while others have created special commissions to draw political districts.

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The maps, however, cannot violate the Constitution or the 1965 Voting Rights Act, and, usually, they’re redrawn after each census—not in the middle of the decade.

Nationwide, Republicans already enjoy a 16-seat advantage in Congress because of gerrymandering, according to the Brennan Center for Justice. That means Democrats need to win far more votes just to hold the same number of seats in Congress as Republicans.

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Janna Brancolini

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