ERROR OF JUDGMENT

Trump’s Expensive Revenge Gamble Is Already Backfiring

Even Republicans fear Ken Paxton is not the right candidate to win the Senate race in November.

Donald Trump’s bid to oust Sen. John Cornyn by endorsing the constantly embattled Texas Attorney General in Tuesday’s GOP primary immediately started backfiring for the president.

The scandal-ridden Paxton overwhelmingly defeated the incumbent Cornyn in what was the most expensive Senate primary campaign in U.S. history, with candidates spending more than $165 million.

However, it was Paxton’s Democratic rival for the Texas Senate seat, James Talarico, who started reaping the benefits of the MAGA candidate’s primary victory.

A spokesperson for Talarico’s campaign told Politico’s Playbook that the Democrat saw $600,000 of donations flood in within two hours of Paxton’s win–the strongest two hours of his entire campaign.

The influx meant that Talarico ended his first-quarter fundraising at $27 million, with $10 million in cash on hand. In comparison, Paxton had just $2.3 million in the bank at the end of March.

Talarico will use his staggering campaign money to help him become the first Democrat to be elected senator in Texas for more than 30 years, and give the Democrats a major boost in retaking control of the Senate in November’s midterms.

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Multiple Republican figures fear that Talarico’s chances of victory have greatly improved now that he is facing Paxton in November rather than the establishment’s preferred candidate, Cornyn.

The Trump-endorsed Paxton has a string of controversies behind him, including being impeached by Texas Republicans over fraud and obstruction of justice allegations, being dogged by corruption charges, and having his wife file for divorce last year on “biblical grounds” after rumors of an affair surfaced.

“Democrats have been in the desert for three decades,” Mark McKinnon, a veteran GOP strategist and adviser to former President George W. Bush, told Politico. “Talarico could be Moses.”

Trump cited an apparent lack of loyalty from Cornyn, including being “very late” in backing his 2024 presidential campaign, as among the reasons why he ended up endorsing Paxton.

Internal polling from the pro-Talarico Lone Star Rising PAC shows that the Democrat has a significant 7-point lead over Paxton in the Texas Senate race (45 percent to 38).

Talarico has already vowed to welcome disillusioned Cornyn supporters into his camp should they want to vote for him rather than the controversial Paxton.

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“I want to thank Senator John Cornyn for his years representing our state. We don’t agree on everything, but we both still believe in public service,” Talarico posted on X Tuesday after Cornyn succeeded. “To Senator Cornyn’s supporters: you have a place in our campaign.

Elsewhere, fellow top Trump loyalist Steve Bannon believes that Paxton could still win the midterm election over Talarico by five points in November, but admitted to Politico that “it’s going to be a total grind.”

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