How One Polymarket Gambler’s Big Bet on Trump Paid Off
The trader correctly predicted a Trump victory in the electoral college and the popular vote, and that the GOP candidate would sweep the “blue wall” swing states.
Andrew Kelly/Reuters
The anonymous French trader who raked in millions of dollars on Polymarket election bets may receive up to $85 million in profit, after the gambling platform cashed in more than $3.6 billion in trading volume for 2024 presidential election predictions.
The trader, identified only as “Théo” by the Wall Street Journal, correctly predicted a Donald Trump victory in both the electoral college, and the popular vote and that the GOP candidate would sweep the “blue wall” swing states of Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Wisconsin.
Théo’s wager, he told the Journal, was essentially a bet against polling data accuracy. According to him, polls did not account for the “shy Trump voter effect,” referring to Trump supporters who opted out of participating in polls or were reluctant to disclose their political affiliations.
The trader described himself as a wealthy Frenchman who had worked for several banks. He reportedly began analyzing U.S. polls over the summer.
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In late October, Théo placed a $28 million wager that moved the market 62 percent in favor of a Trump win on Polymarket, the world’s largest prediction market.
He used multiple Polymarket accounts to systematically place bets. Originally connected to four accounts on the platform, Théo was thought to have won almost $50 million. However, according to Bloomberg, Théo may have operated 11 accounts, nearly doubling his payday.
The trader’s multi-million dollar haul comes on the heels of an announcement from France’s gambling regulator, which plans to investigate Polymarket’s operations to ensure the company complies with its rules.
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