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Leaked Memo Reveals Grim Truth About Must-Win MAGA Candidate’s Campaign

The Paxton campaign cannot keep up.

Ken Paxton

Reuters

A leaked fundraising memo has exposed the grim reality facing Donald Trump’s handpicked Senate candidate in Texas.

The GOP is throwing a fortune behind Ken Paxton, the 63-year-old state attorney general, but a leaked campaign memo warns party donors and funders that his Democratic opponent James Talarico, 37, retains an advantage.

The memo, obtained by Punchbowl News, says Talarico’s campaign has spent or reserved $65 million in advertising at rates below those that Paxton’s team has been able to secure.

“While our fundraising has been strong thanks to your support, we’re playing catch up with him,” Paxton’s fundraisers wrote, noting that his campaign has spent or reserved about $20 million.

President Donald Trump and Republican Senate candidate Ken Paxton attend a campaign rally at Freeman Coliseum in San Antonio, Texas, October 7, 2026.

Donald Trump has personally campaigned for Paxton, his choice as candidate.

Evan Vucci/REUTERS

The campaign reminded donors and GOP officials that early voting begins Oct. 19 and urged them to contribute or bundle donations, promising access to Paxton in return.

“Early voting opens October 19, and every broadcast point we buy before then reaches voters before they cast their ballots. AG Paxton will not return to Washington before Election Day, but he remains available to his supporters. If you can bring together a group of friends or colleagues, we will arrange a phone or video call with the AG,” the memo reads.

“If you would like to bundle contributions, we will track every dollar you raise, and we will host an event for you with him when he returns to Washington after the election. Either way, support given now will not be forgotten.”

The Daily Beast has contacted Paxton’s campaign for comment.

James Talarico

Polling suggests that James Talarico could beat Ken Paxton in November.

Joel Angel Juarez/REUTERS

Paxton, a longtime Trump ally, managed to dislodge Republican incumbent John Cornyn in a brutal primary battle after the president backed him despite party officials warning that past scandals could sink his candidacy.

Those warnings have largely proved correct. A New York Times/Siena University poll conducted Sept. 21-30 put Talarico at 51 percent and Paxton at 45 percent among likely voters, a 6-point advantage for the Democrat.

The numbers have alarmed Republicans in what has long been one of the party’s safest states. The GOP has responded with an enormous spending blitz: Trump-aligned MAGA Inc. has poured more than $22 million into Texas over the past month, while Texas PAC, aligned with Senate Majority Leader John Thune, has spent more than $80 million.

Yet the spending has so far produced little movement in the race.

That is because Paxton has struggled to explain away the many controversies to have dogged him, including a past charge of securities fraud.

He was also impeached by the Republican-controlled Texas House after being accused of corruption, bribery and obstruction of justice. The Texas Senate later acquitted him.

He has also been accused by his wife, Angela, of adultery in a high-profile divorce, which is ongoing.

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Still, Paxton has insisted in leaked audio obtained by Axios that it’s Trump’s war on Iran and the soaring cost of living that are killing him in the polls.

“It’s the war, it’s gas prices, it’s diesel,” Paxton said when asked at a D.C. fundraiser last month which issues are “dragging” him down among voters.

He added that the higher cost of fuel “drives up food prices and everything else,” that “people are feeling the pinch,” and that “we’re having a hard time with numbers” because it’s made unaffordability “by far our biggest problem.”

Trump’s deeply unpopular Middle Easter war has seen energy prices spike. At the same time his approval rating has dropped to the low 30s.

A Democratic victory in Texas would give the party a major pickup in a state that has not elected a Democratic senator since 1988.

A victory for Talarico would also go a long way toward helping Democrats flip the Senate, with the GOP widely expected to lose control of the House in November.

Pollster Angus Reid has Democrats up 16 points on the generic congressional ballot—their biggest lead yet, although other polling organizations put the lead at around 9 points.

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