EVENING THE ODDS

MAGA Senate Stronghold Rocked by ‘Toss-Up’ Prediction

Things are looking increasingly shaky in JD Vance’s home state.

Donald Trump is losing his grip on one of the country’s most pro-MAGA states ahead of November’s crucial midterm elections.

The Cook Political Report (CPR), an independent elections analysis outlet, updated its ratings Monday to reflect Democratic gains in no fewer than four races—including the Senate seat vacated by JD Vance in Ohio, which has consistently voted for Trump since 2016.

CPR has shifted the balance of the Ohio face-off between former Democratic Sen. Sherrod Brown and GOP Sen. Jon Husted from “Lean Republican” into the “Toss Up” category.

Two other seats, in North Carolina and Georgia, have similarly moved from “Toss Up” into the “Lean Democrat” column, while a fourth in Nebraska has now inched from “Solid Republican” into just “Likely Republican.”

“With an increasingly sour national environment, the Senate battlefield is shifting in Democrats’ favor,” CPR’s Jessica Taylor writes.

She goes on to say that “winning back a majority still remains a tall order,” given that “the GOP remain the narrowing favorites to retain the upper chamber,” but that the overall outlook could well shift further “in the coming months.”

Trump, since assuming office for the second time last year, has seen his ratings plummet over everything from his past relationship with convicted sex trafficker Jeffrey Epstein to his newfound thirst for foreign military intervention.

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Aggregators have consistently placed his approval in the high 30s and low 40s. A CNN survey released this month put him at just 35 percent overall, and at a career-low of 31 percent on the economy as voters grow increasingly anxious about surging prices, stubborn inflation and the lingering fallout of his tariffs.

Polls on voter intention ahead of November’s crucial race for control of the House and Senate suggest Democrats continue to hold a substantive edge over GOP candidates across the country, with RealClearPolling putting the generic congressional ballot at 47.5 percent for Democrats over just 41.8 percent for Republicans.

TOUGH CROWD

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The Daily Beast contacted the White House and the Republican National Committee for comment on this story.

“The ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda,” White House spokesperson Davis Ingle said. “No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more.”

“Democrats’ candidates are a criminal coddler, a Nazi, and a terrorist sympathizer,” RNC spokeswoman Delanie Bomar added. “These unelectable freaks are no match for Republicans who deliver real results for Americans, like rural healthcare funding, no tax on overtime, and safe communities.”

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