VOTE OF NO CONFIDENCE

Nate Silver Calls BS on Eye-Popping Poll in Key Senate Race

The statistician scrutinized a new poll suggesting Democrats could underperform on Election Day.

Polling guru Nate Silver is poking holes in a new poll that cast doubt on how much support Democrats can count on when voters cast their ballots next week.

The statistician challenged a new Marist poll released Tuesday that surveyed 1,449 registered voters in Maine and found Republican Sen. Susan Collins trailing her Democratic opponent Troy Jackson by 9 points.

Among likely voters, however, Jackson’s lead shrank to just 2 points—within the margin of error—a discrepancy Silver found hard to square given evidence that Democrats are highly motivated to vote.

“Democrats aren’t going to underperform by 7 points among likely voters relative to registered voters, especially in a year where D turnout is likely to be fairly high by every available measure,” the FiveThirtyEight founder wrote on X.

He acknowledged that Jackson’s 9-point lead among registered voters was hard to believe, too, before adding, “but this is two wrongs making a (maybe?) right.”

A Pew Research Center poll released earlier this month found Democrats more fired up for the midterms, with 63 percent of Democratic registered voters saying they were extremely motivated to vote, compared with 46 percent of Republicans.

Silver was even more skeptical of the poll’s results in the Maine governor’s race, where Democrats again posted weaker numbers among likely voters than among registered voters.

Marist’s survey found Democrat Hannah Pingree and Republican Bobby Charles tied among likely voters, even as Pingree led by a whopping 11 points among registered voters.

“And certainly not by 11 points LOL,” Silver wrote, adding, “I guess I’m being mean to Marist, who are at least transparent enough to publish their assumptions. But this is not a poll that increases my confidence in their approach.”

Marist Poll did not immediately respond to a request for comment.

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Silver, 48, has forecast a blue wave in next week’s elections, basing his predictions largely on the findings of FLIPR—the forecasting model he runs on his Substack, Silver Bulletin. In a New York Times survey of political analysts published Tuesday, Silver predicted Democrats would win majorities in both chambers of Congress, ending the midterms with 240 House seats and 52 Senate seats.

Silver told the Times that midterm waves against the president’s party are “almost the default outcome,” adding, “You might expect a bigger-than-average wave given Trump’s approval numbers, gas prices, Iran, and Epstein.”

He cautioned that the polls could be wrong, but that any errors could cut either way. “I could imagine Republican turnout collapsing, giving Democrats an even bigger rout,” he said.

In an interview on The Ezra Klein Podcast, hosted by The New York Times columnist, Silver declared, “If the election goes roughly as the polls say it will go, then in some ways it would mark the end of the Trump era.”

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