CHAIN REACTION

Nate Silver Reveals Warning Sign for GOP in Deep-Red State

Silver sees a troubling sign for Republicans across the country in one state’s unexpected polling.

If Democrats are competitive in deep-red South Carolina, polling guru Nate Silver says Republicans have a much bigger problem on their hands next week.

Silver laid out how South Carolina could be in play for Democrats—and how that spells trouble for Republicans well beyond the state’s borders—in his Silver Bulletin Substack after a stunning New York Times/Siena poll dropped Wednesday.

The poll found nepo GOP senator Darline Graham and Democrat Annie Andrews tied at 48 percent in the Palmetto state, which President Donald Trump won by 18 points in 2024.

Silver cautioned that he has a “reflexive concern about taking the bull case on Democrats in South Carolina,” pointing to Democrat Jaime Harrison’s 10-point loss to Graham’s late brother Lindsey Graham in 2020 despite polls showing a much tighter race, and the state’s “inelastic” electorate, with few swing voters.

But he noted that South Carolina’s competitiveness—regardless of the outcome—is an ominous sign for Republicans in other swing races where Democrats are already leading.

Noting unusually high Black voter turnout in Louisiana’s early voting, he wrote, “Indeed, the fact that we’re talking about South Carolina — and even a little bit about Louisiana — and not talking much about the Senate races in North Carolina and Georgia might tell you something.”

North Carolina and Georgia may be swing states, but Democrats have opened sizable leads in both Senate races.

Silver argued that Democrats are most likely guaranteed to take control of the Senate should the race in South Carolina turn out to be as close as polls indicate.

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“If the polls are accurate about red-state performance, Democrats could pick up South Carolina if they’re having a fantastic night, but at that point they’ve probably already won Texas and so forth and have more than enough seats in hand,” he wrote.

One sign that this year could differ from Democrats’ 2020 disappointment in South Carolina, Silver wrote, is that the final NYT/Siena poll that year showed Jaime Harrison trailing Lindsey Graham by 6 points, while this year’s final poll puts the candidates neck and neck.

Still, he said Democrats will need to “max out on every factor: turnout and persuasion.” Silver’s polling average shows Graham leading Andrews by 1.5 points.

“Democrats will need basically everything to go right there: first, a serious outperformance for Andrews based on candidate quality and second, turnout patterns that look much different than South Carolina has experienced in the recent past,” he wrote.

Graham, 62, “shows some sign of weakness,” he said, citing her relatively tepid support among Republicans, her debate-stage blunders, and inexperience.

He called Andrews, 45, a “decent-to-good” candidate, but said, “nothing here screams ‘electoral superstar,’ at least not until and unless she prevails next week.”

“This race is mostly about Graham’s weaknesses—and the possibility of a very strong turnout for Democrats,” he said.

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