‘INDEFENSIBLE’

Nate Silver Unleashes Profane Tirade Against Pollster

The data guru did not mince words when asked about a Maine survey.

Election data guru Nate Silver has gone scorched earth on a top pollster over what he says is an “indefensible” survey it conducted in Maine.

During an episode of his Still Counting podcast, a listener asked Silver about a Marist Institute for Public Opinion poll published on Tuesday, which set Silver off on a profane tirade.

Silver took issue with the poll’s gubernatorial projections, which showed an 11-point difference between “likely voter” and “registered voter” support for the Democratic candidate, state Rep. Hannah Pingree, in her race against Bobby Charles.

“What the f--k is up with those polls?” Silver asked. “Obviously the poll is incoherent, and kind of indefensible in one way or another… I’d love to hear the Marist people explain what the f--k is going on with their poll.”

According to the Marist poll, only two percent of registered voters are undecided one week out from Election Day. However, among likely voters, that number jumped to six percent, which Silver believed indicated some sort of error on the pollster’s part.

“That makes no f---ing sense,” Silver said. “I think they’re terrified to publish their actual results, and are hurting… They had to reverse engineer some cockamamie way to do this that totally f----d up their gubernatorial poll. People who are undecided at this point are probably not going to vote.”

Silver offered two potential explanations for the skewed results: “Either their algorithm is buggy and needs to be repaired, or they’re scared of their own shadow.”

“There’s no flattering explanation,” he added. “If you publish two versions of the same poll in the same state, that have a plus-11 and a tie in the same race, you should not publish that poll.”

The Marist Institute for Public Opinion did not respond to a request for comment.

The Marist poll also shows Maine’s Democratic Senate hopeful Troy Jackson leading Republican Sen. Susan Collins by nine points among registered voters, but only by two points among likely voters.

Druke acknowledged that Maine, with the oldest population in the country, could be producing results that weigh older, likely-voter turnout more heavily.

Silver, however, rebuffed that explanation.

“Their poll actually has youth turnout increasing in the likely voter version,” he said. “This poll is indefensible.”

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Christopher Buchanan

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