STATE OF ALARM

NBC’s Data Guru Warns Blue State Could Slip From Dems’ Grasp

Steve Kornacki says a sprawling fraud scandal could help Republicans flip a Senate seat in Minnesota.

NBC’s chief data analyst Steve Kornacki has warned that Democrats could lose a Senate seat in reliably blue Minnesota as a widespread government fraud scandal threatens to doom their candidate.

Kornacki pointed to possible backlash against Democratic Lt. Gov. Peggy Flanagan during a Wednesday appearance on Today, warning that her ties to Gov. Tim Walz could give her Republican opponent, Michele Tofoya, an opening.

“Tafoya, the Republican, has been saying, ‘If you’re upset about that scandal, don’t vote for the lieutenant governor,’” Kornacki said. “There does seem to be a tide within the state that might be working against Democrats”

The race has tightened amid allegations of billions of dollars in fraud involving government programs under Walz’s watch, a scandal Republicans have used to attack Flanagan, his lieutenant governor.

Recent polling from KSTP/SurveyUSA polling shows Flanagan up by a mere three points, with 14 percent of voters still undecided in the race, which could be pivotal to Democrats’ attempts to retake the Senate.

“Relatively close here for Republicans, they’ve been trying for decades to flip Minnesota. What they think is working in their favor here is there’s a state scandal there about medicaid fraud. The governor, Tim Walz, didn’t run for reelection because of it — this is his lieutenant governor!” Kornacki said.

Flanagan has attempted to distance herself from the governor since the scandal broke.

Their most recent joint press announcement earlier this month strictly highlighted accomplishments in their effort to end veteran homelessness. The two have rarely appeared in public together since the end of 2024.

Despite the new distance between the Democrats, Republican barbs have continued.

“The more that Minnesotans learn about me and my opponent and see what my opponent has failed to do over the last eight years alongside Tim Walz, they’re understanding Minnesota needs change,” Tafoya told Fox Digital in an interview this month. “We need an independent thinker and they’re jumping on board.”

During a debate between the candidates this month, Flanagan was asked whether she had any ownership over the fraud that occurred in the state. She responded bluntly that “The governor has been clear the buck stops with him. He is the one who had oversight there.”

Flanagan attempted instead to focus on her record as lieutenant governor, which was primarily focused on services for the homeless community, housing support and childcare.

Tafoya, on the other hand, mentioned the fraud case nearly a dozen times.

If Tafoya were to win, it would break a long Republican losing streak. The last Republican senator to win in the state, Norm Coleman, only served one term from 2003 to 2009 before being replaced by Democrat Al Franken.

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Christopher Buchanan

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