New England Candidates Have a Better Chance in New Hampshire

In anticipation of the first New Hampshire exit polls, New York Times blogger Nate Silver takes a look at past New Hampshire winners and finds that since 1972, New Englanders have had a better chance of getting elected in the region—including Mitt Romney in 2008. Analyzing these candidates' poll numbers—which on average have gone from 17 percent nationally to 32 percent in New Hampshire—shows that New Englanders have a 15 percent advantage over other candidates. Mitt Romney, who won the New Hampshire primary in 2008 with 32 percent of the vote, was polling at only 9 percent nationally at the time. The former Massachusetts governor currently holds about 30 percent of the vote in national polls.