Jimmy Kimmel predicted that Tuesday’s special election results in Trump’s home district in Florida is the first sign of a true blue wave in the November midterms.
Democrat Emily Gregory won the State House 87 seat by a 2-point margin. The win was part of a series of Democratic overperformances throughout Florida; in Tampa Bay, Democrat Brian Nathan narrowly flipped a district that Trump had won by 7 points in 2024.
After her victory, Gregory said to the Associated Press on Wednesday about President Trump, “He’s welcome to call me, as I am his new state representative.”
Kimmel described the surprise Florida election results as a potential “sneak peek at what might be in store for Team Trump come November at the elections.”
Kimmel emphasized the significance of Gregory’s win, noting, “This is a district Trump won by double digits two years ago, and the district he lives in.”
Regarding Trump’s popularity with swing voters, Kimmel speculated that the “magic is wearing off,” because even Trump’s endorsement couldn’t save the Republican candidate running against Gregory.
Reading from a Monday Truth Social post from the president, Kimmel noted, “Two days ago, Trump said the Republican candidate, John Maples, had his complete and total endorsement, and that ‘John will never let you down.’”
“And he’s right, he won’t, because he’s back to work as a financial planner. He lost the race,” Kimmel said.
The late-night host declared the election result a “real kick in the golf balls for Mar-a-Lardo.”
The Republican defeat in Florida’s 87th District comes as Trump’s approval rating reaches a record low for his second term. A recent Reuters/Ipsos poll places his approval nationwide at just 36%.
Approaching the 2018 midterm elections in Trump’s first term, his approval rating hovered around 43%. Democrats went on to flip 41 seats in the House of Representatives, regaining control of the chamber. For 2026, House Democrats only need to flip four seats to win a majority.
Democrats also face a much friendlier 2026 Senate map than they did in 2018. Although it still appears unlikely they’ll regain control of the U.S. senate, Democrats are hoping to flip seats in North Carolina, Maine, and even Alaska, Ohio, Iowa and Texas.
Kimmel’s prediction for November was echoed by CNN data guru Harry Enten on Tuesday. After Gregory’s special election victory, Enten also argued that this was a sign of things to come.
“What is happening right now in Mar-a-Lago is unlikely to stay a Mar-a-Lago,” Enten said. “It is likely to expand nationwide and to expand in the midterm elections as well.”
