THE GREAT GAMBLE

Political Betting Market Isn’t Sweating Mike Johnson’s Uphill Battle for Speaker

The current Speaker of the House’s chances to win reelection seem high, at least according to political bettors.

The numbers are in—and it seems that Mike Johnson is the favorite to become the next Speaker of the House, at least according to political betting markets.

And it’s not even close.

On widely popular prediction market platform Polymarket, the vast majority of political bettors have cast their wages in favor of Johnson, who was estimated as a 90.1% as of Thursday evening.

Meanwhile, other candidates, including Reps. Tom Emmer, Steve Scalise, and Jim Jordan, barely scratched the surface, averaging a little more than 1% each.

Johnson is the current Speaker of the House and is hoping to win reelection in a vote scheduled for Friday around noon. In November, he won unanimous support from House Republicans. The Louisiana Republican also received President-elect Donald Trump’s endorsement on Monday.

“The American people need IMMEDIATE relief from all of the destructive policies of the last Administration,” Trump wrote in a Truth Social post earlier this week. “Speaker Mike Johnson is a good, hard working, religious man. He will do the right thing, and we will continue to WIN. Mike has my Complete & Total Endorsement. MAGA!!!”

Trump’s right-hand man Elon Musk also vouched for Johnson earlier this week, writing that he feels “the same way” as the president-elect on X and telling Johnson that he has his “full support.”

Musk and Trump spearheaded a crusade two weeks ago against a bipartisan package Johnson carefully constructed to keep the government funded. A new bill staving off a shutdown was eventually passed, however, seemingly putting Johnson back on the pair’s good side again.

Republicans currently hold a razor thin majority with a total of 219 seats in the House, while Democrats hold 215. In order to win, Johnson can only risk losing one Republican vote if all members are present and participating.

And despite Trump’s endorsement, several of Johnson’s fellow GOP members and colleagues have come out against him, deeming him unfit for the role.

Republican Rep. Thomas Massie of Kentucky told The Cincinnati Enquirer Thursday: “I’ve decided that life is too short to play along with fake fights and to play along and take votes that people know are wrong.”

“Almost all of my colleagues know that Mike Johnson is not equipped to be speaker, but nobody wants to say the emperor has no clothes,” he added.

Rep. Victoria Spartz of Indiana also voiced her apprehension toward Johnson in an X post Monday, writing, “I understand why President Trump is endorsing Speaker Johnson as he did Speaker Ryan, which is definitely important. However, we still need to get assurances that @SpeakerJohnson won’t sell us out to the swamp.

“Donald Trump endorses Paul Ryan, John McCain. President Trump will be able to save America only if we have a speaker with courage, vision and a plan - also public commitment to the American people how he will help deliver President Trump’s agenda to drain the swamp,” she concluded.

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Yasmeen HamadehNight News Reporter

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