Crime & Justice

Polymarket Predicts What’s Next for Luigi Mangione

What are the odds?

The site, which focuses on predictive betting, made waves during the 2024 presidential election.

HOLLIDAYSBURG, PENNSYLVANIA - DECEMBER 10: Suspected shooter Luigi Mangione is led into the Blair County Courthouse for an extradition hearing December 10, 2024 in Hollidaysburg, Pennsylvania. Mangione has been arraigned on weapons and false identification charges related to the fatal shooting of United Healthcare CEO Brian Thompson in New York City. Mangione is incarcerated in the State Correctional Institution in Huntingdon, Pennsylvania awaiting extradition to New York. (Photo by Jeff Swensen/Getty Images)
Jeff Swensen/Getty Images

Betting website Polymarket’s users have started waging on what the UnitedHealthcare CEO murder suspect’s next moves might be. The site, which focuses on predictive betting, made waves during the 2024 presidential election. Now, users are interested to see what will be in store for Luigi Mangione, the 26-year-old Ivy League graduate who was arrested Monday at a Pennsylvania McDonald’s after a five-day manhunt following the killing of insurance company CEO Brian Thompson in Manhattan. “Will Luigi Mangione plead guilty?” read one of the bets, which had a volume of nearly $82,000 as of Wednesday afternoon. Thirty-nine percent of users plunked their money down on “Yes.” “Only guilty pleas to charges directly stemming from the attack on UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson will qualify (e.g. a guilty plea to charges for possession of a Fake ID will NOT qualify),” the summary said. Other betting options on the site included: “Luigi Mangione extradited to New York before 2025?”; “Will Luigi Mangione tweet again by Friday?; and ”Fact check: Was Luigi Mangione a lone actor?" According to Polymarket, “Markets are created by the markets team with input from users and the community.” Users cannot directly make their own betting topics, but can offer suggestions.

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