Democrats are storming into Republican territory, with new New York Times/Siena polling showing the party leading or within striking distance in four GOP-held governors’ races.
The stunning numbers span Iowa, Ohio, Texas and Alaska—states where Republicans have long held the upper hand.
The strongest Democratic lead comes in Iowa, where Rob Sand, the state auditor, leads Republican businessman and farmer Zach Lahn in the race to succeed retiring Gov. Kim Reynolds, a conservative Republican who has held office for nine years.
Iowa has not elected a Democratic governor since 2006.
Asked who they would vote for if the election were held today, likely voters chose Sand 52 percent to 41 percent.
Ohio has also shifted sharply.
A June Times/Siena poll showed billionaire pharmaceutical entrepreneur Vivek Ramaswamy and Democratic former state health director Amy Acton locked in a dead heat.
The latest survey now gives Acton a 49-45 percent advantage.
Meanwhile, Texas is producing perhaps the most striking upset of all.
Republican Gov. Greg Abbott, a fixture in Texas politics for decades, now trails Democratic challenger Gina Hinojosa, 46 percent to 49 percent.
Democrats are also ahead in Alaska, where Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins leads Republican Bernadette Wilson 52 percent to 48 percent.
Kansas is the lone state surveyed where a Republican holds the advantage.
Republican state Senate President Ty Masterson leads Democratic state lawmaker Cindy Holscher 49 percent to 44 percent in the race to succeed retiring Democratic Gov. Laura Kelly.
The Times/Siena polling also shows Democrats with an advantage in Senate races across these states. Democrats lead in Texas and Alaska and hold an edge in Ohio, while Kansas and Iowa remain closely contested.
It comes as Democrats make inroads across Republican territory as Trump’s standing with voters plummets.
Trump’s approval rating has been tanking since he launched his deeply unpopular war on Iran in February, sending energy prices soaring. AAA figures put the average price of gasoline at $4.37 a gallon, while diesel has climbed to $6.32.
As a result, the president’s national approval has now fallen into the low 30s. An Angus Reid USA survey of 1,205 American adults conducted September 19-25 found that just 34 percent approve of Trump’s governance.
The picture is similarly grim across the five states surveyed by The New York Times and Siena University. Trump’s approval rating stands at just 40 percent across those states, and in four of the five, Republican candidates for governor are performing better than the president.
Meanwhile, the Democrats are benefiting from candidates who are broadly popular and, in many cases, viewed as more moderate than their Republican opponents.
For example, 45 percent of Texas voters said Abbott is too far to the right, compared with just 28 percent who view Hinojosa as too far to the left.
That means that Democrats are surging in the midterms, even among Trump voters.
In Iowa, Sand is viewed positively by more than half of likely voters, including more than 20 percent of Republicans. He has also pulled ahead among voters over 65, a bloc that typically leans Republican.
Ohio is showing the same kind of slippage. Eleven percent of Trump’s 2024 supporters surveyed now say they plan to vote for Acton, who also holds a significant advantage among independents.
Alexandria Hensley, 27, a self-described conservative who voted for Trump two years ago, told the New York Times she wants an Ohio governor willing to work toward “the middle ground.”
In Texas, Republican Mark Rios, 38, of Dallas, is also ready for a change. He has backed Trump in three elections but said gasoline prices have risen since Trump took office and the economy appears to be getting worse. Rios said he is supporting Hinojosa because he wants “a fresh pair of eyes” in office.
“There needs to be a change,” Rios told the New York Times.
And the backlash may not stop at the governor’s mansion. The same political shift is showing up in the battle for Congress.
On the generic congressional ballot, Angus Reid found Democrats leading Republicans by a staggering 16 points—their biggest advantage yet.
Most polls have Democrats ahead of the GOP, raising the possibility that Republicans could lose control of the House and potentially the Senate.
For one Kansas Republican, the stakes could not be clearer.
“If we don’t win midterms, there probably will be no more Republican Party,” Chris Martsolf, a 53-year-old commercial general contractor from Wichita, told The New York Times.
The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.
