GOP BLUES

Republican Panics Over Own Projections in Swing State

A Republican analyst’s own projections turned his Election Day morning into a nightmare.

One GOP analyst started Election Day with a sinking feeling after checking his own forecast for the party.

Garrett Archer, a political analyst for ABC 15 Arizona and a former GOP strategist, shared a text sent to him by a “fellow analyst on the GOP side” on Tuesday morning.

“God all my models are already projecting doom. And it’s 8am,” the unnamed analyst wrote in his text.

Archer clarified that the unnamed GOP analyst was referring specifically to Arizona, a swing state.

Several high-stakes races are on Arizona’s Tuesday ballot, including a closely contested gubernatorial race and two congressional races that could determine control of the House.

Most polls have shown Democratic Gov. Katie Hobbs, 56, with a single-digit lead over Republican Rep. Andy Biggs, 67.

The margins are tighter in the race between Democrat Amish Shah and Republican former NFL kicker Jay Feely, a longtime golf buddy of President Donald Trump, in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, which covers northeastern Maricopa County.

Shah, 47, has led Feely, 50, in polling, including a Keating Research survey conducted last month that put the Democrat four points ahead.

Democrats are looking to flip the district, which Trump narrowly carried in 2024. Cook Political Report moved the race “lean Democratic” from “toss up” in September.

More recently, the forecaster made the same move in another congressional contest, shifting its rating in the race between Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani and Democrat JoAnna Mendoza from “toss up” to “lean Democratic.”

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Polls have shown Mendoza with only a slight lead in Arizona’s 1st Congressional District, which covers the state’s southeast.

Still, the unnamed GOP analyst is hardly the only Arizona Republican anticipating a rough night.

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“We need to bear down, or we’re not going to get there. So, I would say, whatever you’re doing, redouble your efforts, because this state, it’s here for the taking,” said State Rep. Alexander Kolodin, who is trailing in polls in his bid to unseat Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes, on a private call held by Arizona Republicans, the Arizona Mirror reported last week.

Participants were especially concerned about early-voting numbers, which have heavily favored Democrats. Early voting is 8.2 points bluer in Arizona this year than in 2024, according to On Point Politics.

“Where we really need to be is an R+10,” said Warren Petersen, the GOP candidate for lieutenant governor. “With the drop that just happened here, we’re at an R+1.2, and the real issue is that the Dems are front loading very well.”

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Erkki ForsterNight News Reporter

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