MASSIVE SHIFT

Republicans Hit With Brutal Blow in Struggle to Keep Power

The latest rating shift to control Congress is increasingly ugly for the GOP.

Republicans are being bombarded by more bad news as they face down what is gearing up to be a brutal midterm season with just 24 days until Election Day.

The nonpartisan Cook Political Report on Friday shifted 18 more House races, all in Democrats’ favor, giving them an even greater chance of flipping the majority from red to blue.

Republicans are also left scrambling in multiple districts that Trump won by double digits, with new polls showing Democrats in the lead.

Among the shifts by Cook Political Report, five seats that were previously considered “toss-ups” have been moved to “Lean Democrat,” while four seats that were previously “Lean Republican” are now considered “toss-ups.”

Looking at the maps now, their analysis indicates the most likely outcome is that Democrats will pick up nine to 19 seats in the House. They only need to flip three to take the majority. That would give them between 224 and 234 seats in the chamber.

It also means that Democrats only need to win 20 percent of the “toss-up” races to take control.

Among the seats that are now considered “toss-ups” is the North Carolina 1st congressional district seat held by Democratic Rep. Don Davis. Republicans had attempted to gerrymander that competitive seat to help Republicans, but despite the time and money, their efforts may come up short.

Among the “toss-up” seats that have now shifted to “Lean Democrat” are the Iowa congressional districts represented by GOP Reps. Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks. It comes as Speaker Mike Johnson is set to campaign for Miller-Meeks on Friday afternoon in Davenport, Iowa.

Johnson also attended a fundraiser for Republican Ralph Alvarado, who is running for Kentucky’s 6th congressional district on Friday morning just as that race was also shifted. It went from “Likley Republican to Lean Republican.”

Trump won the district by 15 points just over two years ago, but a new poll by House Majority PAC found Democrat Zach Dembo leading Alvarado by three points 48 percent to 45 percent on Thursday. When multiple third party candidates were factored in, Dembo leads Alvarado by six points.

Despite the deluge of bad news, Johnson has tried to paint an optimistic picture for his party as he continues to march lockstep with Trump, but cracks appear in his rosy facade.

“If we lose the House it will be because the people were misled,” Johnson told Fox News this week while also insisting he did not know how losing the House could fall on him.

He also admitted in a rare moment that he did not know what his next chapter in life would be if Republicans lose the majority.

Pennsylvania’s 7th congressional district also shifted from “toss-up” to “Lean Blue” just days after Johnson campaigned there with Rep. Ryan MacKenzie.

Even in districts not shifted by Cook Political Report, Republicans saw warning signs on Friday.

Up in New York’s 21st congressional district, which Trump won by nearly 21 points less than two years ago, a new poll by Siena showed Democrat Blake Gendebien leading MAGA candidate Anthony Constantino by four points, 46 percent to 42 percent.

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While it showed the Republican gubernatorial candidate up in the district, it had 21 percent of Republicans and 51 percent of Independents backing Gendebien.

Democrats celebrated the poll, but Constantino’s campaign blasted it as not credible and took issue with it including a write-in candidate in the race.

Trump will be holding a rally on Friday in New York’s neighboring 22nd congressional district. It’s one former Vice President Kamala Harris won by more than seven points in 2024 and the congressional seat is rated “Solid Democrat.”

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Sarah Ewall-WicePolitical Reporter

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