REDRAWING A BLANK

Republicans Secretly Admit Trump’s Power Grab Plot Is Crumbling

Officials had hoped redrawing congressional maps would gain them 16 extra House seats, but the result could be pitiful.

Republicans have quietly admitted that Donald Trump’s redistricting power grab is unraveling and are losing hope that the controversial plan will deliver a midterm victory.

President Trump, 80, launched an unprecedented mid-decade redistricting push in 2025, urging Republican-led states to redraw congressional boundaries to protect its narrow House majority.

Texas led the way, with other Republican-controlled states, including Florida, Ohio and North Carolina, adopting or pursuing more favorable maps—prompting Democrats to counter with their own efforts.

Republicans initially expected to create 16 more seats favoring the party, including five in Texas, four in Florida and two in Ohio. They also targeted one additional seat each in Alabama, Louisiana, Missouri, North Carolina and Tennessee.

AdImpact data shows the GOP has poured $133 million into television advertising across redrawn districts it had expected to win comfortably.

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However, the strategy has not delivered what Republicans initially hoped: House GOP leaders acknowledged in October that they were unlikely to win all the seats they had targeted, while estimates suggested the net Republican gain from redistricting could be far smaller than originally projected.

According to Axios, senior Republican strategists now fear the party’s nationwide redistricting push could deliver a net gain of just one House seat.

It comes after the political climate darkened for the party in the wake of Trump’s launching of his war in Iran in February.

The conflict has seen energy prices spike to record highs while Trump’s approval rating plummets to record lows in the 30s.

Republican support has especially fallen among Latino voters, putting at risk several districts they had expected to secure through redistricting after Trump made significant gains with Hispanic voters in the 2024 election.

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As a result, Republicans fear their redistricting efforts may be wasted.

“Texas, I’d be surprised if we got all five,” GOP Rep. Tom Emmer told Axios this month. “Florida, I’d be shocked if we got all four.”

In Texas, Republicans are confident about just two of the five districts they redrew, Axios reported, while Republicans think they can win two of the four new seats in Florida.

With the November 3 midterms approaching, Republicans expect to win between seven and 12 of the seats affected by redrawn maps, according to Axios.

In the worst-case scenario, they could gain seven seats while Democrats pick up six, leaving the GOP with a net gain of just one nationwide.

FALLING SHORT

Trump Hit With Bombshell Blue Wave Warning

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Democrats hold an 8-point lead on the generic congressional ballot in the November poll, according to the RealClearPolling average. Several House districts that President Donald Trump won by double digits in 2024 are now considered competitive, meaning the Republicans are likely to lose control of the House, and quite possibly the Senate.

Republicans have voiced their concerns behind closed doors. Carlos Curbelo, a former Republican congressman who lost his competitive Florida seat during Trump’s first midterm elections in 2018, said the current political climate is particularly unforgiving.

“The environment is about as tough as one could expect,” Curbelo told Politico. “There is no one who has privately stated that they believe Republicans can hold the House—not in recent weeks, anyway.”

The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.

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