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Donald Trump’s latest online tirade against Canada appears to have blown up in his face.

Trump congratulated two Canadian politicians on Tuesday after their parties scored provincial election wins, presenting the results as evidence of growing Conservative strength and a rebuke of prime minister Mark Carney.

The U.S. president’s celebratory posts came just days after his administration accused Canadian politicians of meddling in America’s midterm elections.

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Last week, the U.S. Embassy in Ottawa accused Canadian politicians of trying to influence the November 3 midterms.

Officials pointed to Industry Minister Mélanie Joly’s remarks about targeting Republican states with retaliatory tariffs, as well as an advertisement commissioned by Ontario Premier Doug Ford that featured former President Ronald Reagan criticizing tariffs.

The embassy also cited 11 Canadians charged with illegally voting in U.S. elections between 2012 and 2026, although it did not connect those cases to the Canadian government.

Carney dismissed the accusations, insisting they had “no merit.”

Yet within days, Trump was celebrating Canadian provincial election results.

Trump shared an article presenting a Quebec separatist victory as a blow to Carney and hailed a Conservative win in British Columbia as proof that the party was gaining momentum.

“Congratulations to Paul St-Pierre Plamondon on his WIN!” Trump posted on Truth Social on Tuesday. He also linked to an article headlined “Separatists win Quebec provincial election in blow to Mark Carney.”

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Plamondon has criticized Trump’s tariffs and ruled out holding a referendum on Quebec independence while the American president remains in office.

Trump also congratulated British Columbia’s premier-designate, Lorne Doerkson, on his “Big Victory.” Doerkson has condemned Trump’s tariffs and called him a bully, yet the president still declared: “Conservatives are moving strong in Canada!”

The two posts were made within minutes of each other.

The problem with Trump’s victory lap is that analysts say the results reflected local political dynamics, not waning support for Carney — and warn Trump’s attacks may be making the Canadian prime minister even more popular, according to the Associated Press

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Daniel Béland, a political science professor at McGill University in Montreal, told the AP that neither result should be viewed as a rejection of Carney.

Béland also warned that the administration’s accusations against Ottawa about election interference could help Republicans build a “Blame Canada” narrative if they suffer setbacks in the midterms.

Polls currently show Democrats leading the GOP, meaning Republicans are at serious risk of losing the House.

“It is absurd for President Trump to comment on Canadian provincial politics while the U.S. embassy in Canada is falsely claiming that country is interfering in the U.S. midterms,” Béland said.

Nelson Wiseman, a political scientist at the University of Toronto, also argued that Trump had misread Canada’s Conservative movement and the political consequences of his attacks.

“Carney’s popularity is at a stratospheric level,” Wiseman said. “The more Trump attacks Canada and Carney, the more popular Carney becomes.”

Carney’s approval rating stands at around 62 percent, while Trump’s has fallen to the low 30s just weeks before the American midterms.

The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for comment.

The growing political friction is part of a broader dispute between two longtime allies that escalated after Trump threatened to turn Canada into the 51st U.S. state.

Trump has repeatedly questioned the permanence of the U.S.-Canada border, portraying the longstanding boundary as an arbitrary line that could be redrawn through pressure or force.

“Somebody drew that line many years ago with, like, a ruler – just a straight line right across the top of the country,” Trump told Carney last year.

The threats have been serious enough that Carney told The New York Times in September he had spent the previous year preparing for what he called the “extreme tail risk” of a U.S. attack on Canada.

Trump’s rhetoric has also fuelled a damaging trade confrontation. After negotiations collapsed, he imposed a 50 percent tariff on approximately $20 billion worth of Canadian products under a previously unused provision of the Tariff Act of 1930.

He has even sought to rename Lake Ontario “Lake America.”

Carney’s government has retaliated with higher duties on American steel and aluminium, alongside additional tariffs on other U.S. goods that were scheduled to take effect on September 29.

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