Optimists

The Dems Could Surprise Tonight

Even though he predicts Republicans will win 54 or 55 House seats, polling guru and founder of FiveThirtyEight.com Nate Silver gives a glimmer of hope for the Democrats looking to hang on to the House by providing five reasons the odds could go in their favor. Voters who strictly use cellphones, nearly 25 percent, are often not counted by pollsters; major organizations such as CNN, Fox, and Reuters only poll landline users. Silver also says automated polls or “robopolls” can glaze over a significant portion of voters. Gallup, whose polls have been the most dire for Dems, may “crowd out” Democratic voters. And Democrats will enjoy, as they always do, better get-out-the-vote operations on Tuesday.