The Science of the Upset

David beat Goliath—but it wasn’t because of luck. In an essay in The New Yorker, Malcolm Gladwell explores what it takes to beat the odds and topple the giant. Here’s the secret: Goliaths only win 71.5 percent of the time; Davids aren’t just one-in-a-million victors. But Davids almost never win if they play by Goliath’s rules. Whether it is in a war or on a basketball court, the weaker team must not only outsmart – it must streamline, and risk being laughed at to win. Take, for example, the California basketball dad who knew he was coaching an inferior team. He watched as other teams on defense retreat to their own basket, waiting patiently for the opponent to advance. Why, he thought, would an underdog surrender 75 percent of the court? Instead, he decided, he was going to have his team do a full court press, every game, all the time. They went to the National Championships. “David pressed,” writes Gladwell. “That’s what Davids do when they want to beat Goliaths.” And when they can’t match up on ability, David must challenge what Goliath has in his corner: social convention. Gladwell continues that in order to win, Davids must “…do what is ‘socially horrifying’ – they will challenge the conventions about how battles are supposed to be fought.”