A top American biologist believes that Russia’s mysterious pneumonic plague outbreak could actually be something much more sinister.
Kevin Esvelt, a biologist and professor at the Massachusetts Institute of Technology, theorized in a thread on X on Monday that the reports of an anti-plague institute employee dying from pneumonic plague don’t add up.
“Russia’s five-hospital quarantine, FSB involvement, and reported hazmat use in response to the death of a single researcher at a weapons-lineage Irkutsk lab are inconsistent with a lab-acquired plague infection, which would have been treated with prophylactic antibiotics,” Esvelt, 44, wrote.
“Russian authorities have surely sequenced the Irkutsk pathogen, but refuse to identify it,” he continued. “Physical lockdown indicates it cannot be controlled with prophylactic antibiotics, implying engineered pan-resistance or that it isn’t plague at all.”
“None of this means the Irkutsk pathogen will cause a pandemic. But the response clearly indicates that Russia believes an epidemic is possible - and that the responsible agent is likely a pandemic weapon or otherwise embarrassing for the government,” he added.
“Vaccines will be ineffective against competently designed pandemic weapons. Russia may not be competent yet, but future AI will democratize competence. We should stockpile pandemic-proof PPE and install germicidal far-UV and glycol misters in public spaces.”
The Daily Beast reached out to Esvelt for comment.
Authorities reported on Friday that Darya Shipilova, a 28-year-old lab tech at a disease research facility in Russia’s Irkutsk region, died in a suspected case of the plague, according to The Moscow Times.
Shipilov had allegedly broken a test tube containing live bacteria while collecting samples for testing before falling ill, the outlet said.
She had been hospitalized with severe pneumonia symptoms on Tuesday and was placed on a ventilator, with reports saying she died two days later, on Thursday.
Several hospitals in the region were forced into quarantine, and nearly 200 people were placed under medical observation, The Moscow Times reported.
Residents told local outlet People of Baikal that doctors in the region were “openly talking about the plague,” and a local maternity hospital reportedly blocked family members from visiting birthing mothers due to the disease.
“If [federal health officials] said everything is fine, then why are the hospitals closing for quarantine?” one resident was quoted asking.
Public health officials have insisted that the epidemiological situation is under control, and Kremlin-linked agencies recalled their past mentions of pneumonic plague.
Igor Kobzev, the governor of the Irkutsk region, referred to the pathogen only as “a dangerous infectious disease” and did not identify it as the plague.
“All identified contact persons have been placed under medical observation. As of today, the contacts show no signs of illness, and their laboratory test results are negative,” he wrote on Telegram on Friday.
Esvelt isn’t the only scientist skeptical of the broken test tube story.
Russian epidemiologist Michael Favorov, who resides in the U.S., said that the explanation was “laughable.”
‘Someone working at the anti-plague institute in Irkutsk wears a protective anti-plague suit," he said, according to the New York Post. “If you break a test tube, the likelihood of infection is actually very low. In short, it doesn’t matter to the general public—they’ll believe the ‘dropped test tube story.’”
