WARNING SIGNS

Trump’s Jaw-Dropping Collapse With Crucial Voter Group Revealed

The president is losing his grip on a group that helped propel him to power.

President Donald Trump’s popularity has cratered among independents, particularly those without a college education, scathing new polling analysis has found.

According to an analysis by the Associated Press-NORC Center for Public Affairs Research of two dozen polls conducted between July 2024 and April 2026, Trump’s standing among independents without a college degree has fallen dramatically during his second term.

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Around the 2024 election, nearly half of independents without a college degree viewed Trump positively. By this spring, that figure had fallen to roughly one-quarter.

Before Trump returned to office, non-college independents were substantially more favorable toward him than college-educated independents. Now, both groups hold similarly negative views of the president.

The findings come as Trump increasingly comes under fire for his handling of the affordability crisis, exacerbated by his war with Iran. Sky-high gas prices are having a negative effect on Trump’s approval rating, as Americans struggle with the cost of living.

The polling analysis tracked opinion across several key moments of Trump’s second term, including his first 100 days in office, the passage of the “Big Beautiful Bill,” last fall’s government shutdown, and the start of the Iran war, which the president launched on Feb. 28.

Researchers found that support among independents steadily eroded throughout those periods.

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During and immediately after the 2024 election, 48 percent of independents without a college degree viewed Trump positively. That number fell to 31 percent during his first 100 days back in office before dropping further to roughly one-quarter during the government shutdown and the opening months of the year.

The analysis also found Trump losing ground among Black and Hispanic independents, two groups that moved toward him during the 2024 election.

Tafari Torres, a senior research associate at NORC who also co-authored the analysis, said independents have been the group most responsive to events during Trump’s second term.

“Independents are, broadly, the people who are reacting to the events and dropping in their support,” Torres said.

When previously contacted for comment, White House spokesman Davis Ingle told the Daily Beast the “ultimate poll was November 5th 2024 when nearly 80 million Americans overwhelmingly elected President Trump to deliver on his popular and commonsense agenda.”

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“No other President in history has accomplished more for the American people than President Trump, who is working tirelessly to create jobs, cool inflation, increase housing affordability, and more,” he added. “The President has already made historic progress not only in America but around the world, and this is just the beginning as his agenda continues taking effect.”

The Daily Beast has contacted the White House for additional comment.

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Isabel van BrugenFreelance Writer

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