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LONE STAR SHOCKER

CNN Data Guru Floored by Dem’s Lead in Deep Red State

The latest polling shows James Talarico leading by six points in Texas.

CNN chief data analyst Harry Enten was visibly stunned while breaking down new polling that shows Democrats holding a rare advantage in the high-stakes Texas Senate race.

The fresh CNN/SSRS survey, conducted October 20 to 27, shows Democratic state Representative James Talarico leading scandal-plagued Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton by six points, with 49 percent support compared to Paxton’s 43 percent. The poll carries a margin of error of 4.2 percent.

Analyzing the numbers alongside anchor John Berman, Enten described the survey results as “Earth-shattering, earthquake stuff.”

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico locked in the support of a prominent former Paxton donor after meeting with him.

Texas Democratic Senate candidate James Talarico is in the lead.

Danielle Villasana/Getty Images

“I mean, I literally feel, well, not literally, but I do feel the ground beneath me shaking,” Enten remarked on air.

“I mean, this is what we’re talking about. I mean, look at this. We’re talking about James Talarico up six points. This is the best Democratic Senate polling since Lloyd Bentsen won in Texas—what was that? That was 38 years ago. We’re talking 1988. My goodness gracious.”

The data highlights a massive 21-point advantage for Talarico among independent voters.

“You know, they talk about Texas turning blue in the past, but there has never been polling like this,” Enten added. “James Talarico in a historically strong position for a Democrat in the great state of Texas.”

Texas Republican Senate candidate, Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton attends the first day of the 2026 Republican National Convention at the American Airlines Center on September 09, 2026 in Dallas, Texas. U.S. President Donald Trump will headline the Republican National Committee's first-ever midterm convention as he aims to highlight his administration’s achievements and rally support for GOP candidates just two months before the upcoming elections being held on November 3.

Talarico is squaring off against Texas Attorney General Ken Paxton.

Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

The figures underscore severe headwinds for Paxton, whose net approval rating has plunged to -29 points.

“I mean, the least popular Texas GOP Senate nominee this century,” Enten noted. “I mean, look at this. Ken Paxton is 29 points underwater. He’s lower than the Rio Grande Valley in Texas. My goodness gracious. He’s down there in the Gulf of Mexico or Gulf of America, if we’re talking Trump’s language here.”

Compounding Paxton’s political drag is President Donald Trump’s declining popularity. While Trump enjoyed a positive three-point net approval rating at a comparable point in his first term in 2018, his standing in the state has fallen by 18 points.

“So we see Donald Trump being historically unpopular, Ken Paxton being historically unpopular for a Republican Senate nominee in Texas, and you put that together, and you get Democrats in their best position to win a United States Senate seat in the great state of Texas since 1988,” Enten said.

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