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Dem’s Odds Spike to All-Time High After MAGA Candidate’s Disaster Ad

Vivek Ramaswamy’s attack ad appears to have backfired against him.

Amy Acton’s odds of becoming Ohio governor have surged to a record high after her opponent Vivek Ramaswamy released a twisted attack ad against her.

The 60-second advertisement, which features Acton’s estranged mother, Donna Arthur, calling her daughter a liar over her claims of childhood sexual abuse, emerged online Monday.

First reported by The Rooster, the ad has since been confirmed by Axios as having been funded by Ramaswamy’s campaign.

In the advertisement, Arthur claims her daughter has “a serious problem.”

“She is a liar. She lies about her past. She says she grew up living in a tent—none of that is true. She’s lied her entire life,” says Arthur, who rejects her daughter’s claim to have been raped by her stepfather as a girl. “My daughter needs help, and she can’t help you if she needs help herself. People can change, but first they have to tell the truth, and my daughter still isn’t doing that.”

The ad ends with Arthur urging Ohio voters to reject the Democratic candidate.

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“Don’t vote for people who lie. Don’t let her become your governor. If you think she’ll make your life better, you’re fooling yourself. It will only get worse.”

The campaign reportedly spent $4 million on the advertisement, according to Axios, which reported that Arthur was not paid for her participation.

It came as Acton holds a lead over Ramaswamy in the polls. A new Marist poll found that 50 percent of likely Ohio voters support Acton, compared with 43 percent for Ramaswamy.

However, the controversial ad appears to have backfired against Ramaswamy, with betting odds showing that Acton’s chances of becoming governor have surged.

On Kalshi, Acton’s odds of becoming governor reached 76 percent, compared with 25 percent for Ramaswamy. Polymarket put Acton at 79 percent and the Republican at 22 percent.

The figures represent a dramatic reversal from earlier in the race. Ramaswamy, who has received the backing of President Donald Trump, had been ahead of Acton on both platforms until around mid-August.

Acton’s prospects have climbed since then, with her odds rising by approximately 5 percentage points since the ad first surfaced on Monday.

The markets also forecast a Democratic victory by 4.3 percentage points in the Nov. 3 election, according to Kalshi.

Although prediction-market odds reflect traders’ expectations rather than a definitive forecast of the result, the latest figures suggest growing confidence as to Acton’s chances.

The Daily Beast has contacted Ramaswamy and Acton’s campaigns for comment.

After the ad surfaced, Acton accused Ramaswamy of weaponizing her family’s painful history to advance his political ambitions.

In a statement shared on Facebook on Tuesday, Acton alleged that she had been repeatedly raped by her stepfather as a child, while her mother failed to intervene.

“Between the ages of 10 and 12, I was sexually abused by her husband, while my birth mother did nothing to protect me,” she wrote.

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She added: “I’ve always known that she was deeply sick and unwell, and it’s sad to see Vivek Ramaswamy exploit her all for his own political gain.”

Her brother, Philip Stearns, joined the criticism, accusing Ramaswamy of exploiting Acton’s childhood trauma for electoral advantage.

“It’s not surprising that Vivek Ramaswamy has stooped to such a despicable low as to attempt to turn the sexual abuse Amy endured at twelve years old from our birth mother’s husband into a political talking point,” Stearns said.

He went on to describe the family’s history, adding: “After he was arrested and Amy and I were removed from their custody, our birth mother stayed married to Amy’s rapist until he died.”

Stearns concluded with a scathing assessment of the Republican’s campaign tactics: “This desperate, disgusting attack reveals exactly who Vivek Ramaswamy is at his core - a pathetic excuse for a man who is willing to hurt anyone as long as it gets him what he wants.”

The backlash has extended beyond Acton’s family and Democratic allies. Ramaswamy faced heckling over the advertisement during a town hall in Westerville, near Columbus, on Tuesday, according to CNN.

And while prominent MAGA figures, including Donald Trump Jr. and Laura Loomer, shared or defended the ad, several conservative voices distanced themselves from the Republican’s approach.

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Meghan McCain condemned the spot as “dastardly,” writing on X: “It never should have been created. Shame on whatever consultant firm created this,”

Conservative talk radio host and political commentator Jason Rantz was similarly scathing in remarks to CNN.

“It is so unbelievably disgusting to put this kind of ad out... this is not necessarily new, but I’ve never seen it this low. And I don’t think Vivek should want to be known for that. It’s a shame, I do think he could lead, but this shows that he can’t.”

Republican commentator Shermichael Singleton also rejected the tactic, despite acknowledging his political differences with Acton.

“I don’t agree with this woman on much of anything, I’m a Republican for goodness’ sake. But this is not the type of politics that I would endorse as a candidate and I think it’s not the type of politics that many Republicans across the country would endorse.”

Conservative commentator Scott Jennings suggested the decision to deploy such an advertisement late in the campaign could signal trouble for Ramaswamy.

“To throw out a piece like this at the end of a race, is not a confidence-inspiring item,” he told CNN.

Ramaswamy’s campaign, however, has shown little willingness to retreat. Spokesperson Connie Luck defended the advertisement, arguing that questions about Acton’s credibility were relevant to voters weighing their choice for governor.

“We don’t know what happened between Amy and her mother, who first spoke out about Amy in 2020, but we know that Amy Acton is a serial fabulist who has some serious problems with the truth that the public needs to be aware of before deciding who to entrust as governor,” Luck said in a statement.

Despite the mounting criticism, Ramaswamy’s campaign plans to continue airing the advertisement. Axios reported on Tuesday that sources close to the Republican said the campaign was sticking with the spot because of its reported performance among “persuadable” voters.

In a 2019 interview with The Vindicator, Acton said she was sexually abused between the ages of 9 and 12. Her stepfather was charged with rape in 1978 after her biological father reported the abuse to police, according to The New York Times. He pleaded not guilty and died in 2004 without being convicted.

Acton has described her childhood in Youngstown as marked by “a lot of abuse and neglect,” recalling in a Democratic Governors Association video: “I was even homeless in the middle of winter.”

Now 60, she has been estranged from her mother since 1978, when her mother defended her stepfather in court.

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