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Iowa Breaks for Trump—Defying Last-Minute Poll Showing Harris Lead

The former president is projected to win the Hawkeye State for the third election in a row.

Former President Donald Trump is expected to win Iowa, according to projections from both CNN and NBC News.

Both networks projected a Trump victory after he secured an estimated 56% of the vote, easily ahead of Vice President Kamala Harris, who held roughly 42% of the vote by 11:00 p.m. on Election Day. The Associated Press called the state for Trump by 10:41 p.m. Eastern Time.

Most polling suggested Trump would easily win the Midwestern state and its six electoral votes, which he carried in both 2020 and 2016. However, a last-minute poll conducted by widely respected pollster J. Ann Selzer showed Democrats ahead by three points in the Hawkeye State.

Selzer, who publishes polling with the Des Moines Register, has a renowned track record in Iowa. She accurately predicted Barack Obama’s win in 2012, as well as Trump’s victory flipping the state in 2016 and 2020.

Both the Harris and Trump campaigns were hoping that a victory in Iowa could predict better results in the other “blue wall” state in the Midwest—Wisconsin and Michigan.

However, Trump’s camp quickly shot back against Selzer’s prediction, with the Republican nominee calling it a “fake poll” and his campaign releasing a memo labeling it as a “clear outlier.”

The 2024 election results mirror the former president’s dominance in the state earlier this year, when he won a staggering 50% of the vote in January’s Iowa Caucus against a crowded field of Republican candidates.

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Zachary FolkFreelance Reporter

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