SORRY GUV'NOR

Nate Silver Shares Jaw-Dropping Stat on Trump Wipeout

It’s not just the House and the Senate that have been calamitous for the president.

Election guru Nate Silver has made an astonishing claim about the midterm elections.

Republicans have taken a beating in both the House and the Senate, losing both under a blue wave—but things aren’t looking rosy for the GOP in gubernatorial races either.

The FiveThirtyEight and Silver Bulletin newsletter founder said in a post on X that he believes Democrats could end up with governorships across the electoral map if the remaining elections go as predicted at the time of writing.

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“If the remaining results go as expected, Democrats will hold governorships in states totaling 392 electoral votes,” he said.

He also shared a map from 270toWin showing that if all races continue on their current trajectory, Republicans would hold just 146 electoral college votes compared to the Democrats’ 392.

Governors sign a Certificate of Ascertainment after a presidential election, identifying their state’s appointed electors.

The Democrats have flipped governors’ houses in Texas, Ohio, Nevada, Georgia, and Iowa.

Among the highest-profile gubernatorial results so far was Democrat Gina Hinojosa in Texas, who beat incumbent Greg Wayne Abbott.

Her victory ended a 31-year GOP-dominated stretch.

Republicans also won some races, though not all of them will soothe Trump. New Hampshire Gov. Kelly Ayotte and Vermont’s Phil Scott both held onto their governorships in rare GOP wins. Ayotte did not overly embrace Donald Trump during her election campaign. Scott is no ally of Trump and voted for Biden in 2020.

The problems may not stop there for Trump and the Republican Party. Silver previously revealed that a trouncing could have repercussions for the GOP in 2028.

“Maybe it’s too early to think ahead to 2028. But it’s not just whether they [Democrats] flip the Senate that matters. Running up the score in [Congress] would matter a lot too,” he wrote. “At the upper end of their range, and honestly the upper end goes pretty high at this point, they could make it difficult for Republicans to have a trifecta even if they win the presidency.”

He made it clear who the buck stopped with on his live election-night blog.

“All of these problems are Trump’s fault,” Silver wrote. “He almost seems to have a death wish in these midterms.”

Trump stumping for key candidates didn’t do the trick for some of his highest-profile endorsements either.

Among the races he put most effort into, Darline Graham in South Carolina and Ken Paxton in Texas both lost.

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Harry ThompsonNews Reporter

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