THE TRUMP TRAP

Nate Silver Drops Ominous 2028 Warning for Trump’s Party

The election produced the second-biggest midterm swing towards Democrats since WWII.

Nate Silver has warned that the scale of the Republicans’ crushing midterm defeat could spell serious trouble for Donald Trump’s party in 2028.

The midterms delivered a major blow to Republicans, with Democrats reclaiming control of Congress after flipping a series of GOP strongholds.

In an analysis published Wednesday, Silver said the results were more significant than a typical midterm setback.

The polling expert, founder of FiveThirtyEight and author of the Silver Bulletin newsletter, noted that the election produced the second-biggest midterm swing towards Democrats since WWII, at around 15 percentage points.

According to Silver, that could be an ominous sign of what is ahead for the GOP.

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“I know the ‘smart’ conventional wisdom is that midterms don’t predict future election results,” Silver wrote in a post on X, which featured a graph comparing Trump and George W. Bush’s approval ratings at this point in their second terms. “But then I look at this. And 2006 is the only modern lame-duck term with a wave like this.”

Silver was referring to the 2006 midterms, when Republicans lost control of both chambers of Congress amid widespread anger over Bush’s presidency and the Iraq War.

That was after Bush’s approval rating dropped to around 38 percent.

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Two years later, Democrats won the White House, with Barack Obama defeating Republican candidate John McCain.

Silver argues that 2026 has important similarities: an unpopular, term-limited Republican president, an unpopular war, economic discontent and a huge electoral backlash.

The tide has been turning against Trump and his party since he launched his deeply unpopular war in Iran, sending energy prices soaring and his approval ratings plunging to record lows.

According to Silver’s analysis, Trump and Bush’s second-term approval ratings have followed a nearly identical trajectory, with Trump’s rating currently sitting at 38 percent.

However, he conceded that drawing such a comparison involved some degree of cherry-picking, given the limited number of elections available for analysis.

But he said the scale of the Republican defeat, combined with Trump’s unpopularity and his inability to seek another term, could have lasting consequences for the party.

Trump’s low approval ratings, Silver suggested, could become a significant liability for whoever seeks to lead the Republicans in 2028.

He specifically questions whether potential successors such as JD Vance or Marco Rubio can distance themselves from Trump enough to appeal to voters without alienating the president’s loyal supporters.

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“How in the hell are Republicans going to go about picking an appealing candidate for 2028? JD Vance is the leader in prediction markets, but he’s Trump’s vice president. Marco Rubio, the other frontrunner, is the Secretary of State,” Silver wrote.

Neither Rubio nor Vance has declared a bid for the 2028 presidency, but the 55-year-old secretary of state and 42-year-old vice president have spent months emerging as possible successors to Trump, who has kept everyone guessing over which, if either, he intends to back.

Vance has played down speculation that he is competing with Rubio for the GOP nomination, calling the secretary of state his “best friend.”

Rubio has also stated that he won’t run for president in 2028 if Vance decides to run.

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