BLUE TSUNAMI

Nate Silver Warns of Major Twist in the Midterm Polls

The statistician said that the polls could be wrong, but not in the way you’d expect.

Polling expert Nate Silver has hinted that the midterm elections could hold a big surprise.

The FiveThirtyEight founder told The New York Times he was confident in the midterm polls and encouraged other analysts to share his conviction, but added that polling error could swing either way—even further in favor of the Democrats.

“Most analysts seem to have little to no confidence in the polling, but maybe they should,” Silver said, according to the Times. “Polls in the past two midterms were pretty accurate and unbiased. More important, they may not be projecting anything all that remarkable.”

He continued, “‘Waves’ are very normal in the midterms and almost the default outcome. You might expect a bigger-than-average wave given Trump’s approval numbers, gas prices, Iran, and Epstein.”

Silver acknowledged that the polls could be wrong again, “especially in the Midwest,” but he emphasized that “polling error can run either way.”

“I could imagine Republican turnout collapsing, giving Democrats an even bigger rout,” he added.

Among the six analysts the Times queried, Silver held the most optimistic view of Democrats’ performance in the midterms. He predicted that the Democratic Party will hold 240 House seats and 52 Senate seats after the midterms, winning majorities in both chambers.

The statistician has been clear about his forecast of a blue wave in next week’s midterm elections, basing his predictions largely on the findings of FLIPR—the forecasting model he runs on his Substack, Silver Bulletin.

He appeared on CNN’s Fareed Zakaria GPS on Sunday to discuss FLIPR’s latest findings, which upgraded Democrats’ chances of winning the Senate from “Lean D” to “Likely D,” and had Democrats’ House chances at 95 percent.

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Much of that shift stems from Americans’ frustration with the Trump administration, he explained. Trump, 80, currently holds the lowest presidential approval rating before a midterm election since Harry Truman in 1946.

“If you take a step back and think about ‘what are the background conditions in this election,’ you have gas at four dollars and 30 cents a gallon,” Silver told Zakaria.

“You have a president with a 37 percent approval rating. You have a long history of the president’s party doing poorly in the midterms, including in 2018, when under President Trump, the GOP lost 41 seats in the House,” he continued.

Silver also cited higher participation in Democratic primary elections throughout the year as a possible signal for an impending Democratic sweep.

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Vic VerbalaitisNight Breaking News Reporter

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