AND THE WINNERS WILL BE...

Here’s Who Will (And Should!) Win at This Year’s Emmy Awards

Obsessed’s Kevin Fallon shares his picks for who will win, who should win, and who should still be upset they weren’t even nominated.

This piece first ran on the Obsessed by Kevin Fallon Substack. Subscribe here to read more like it!

It’s just around the corner: the annual therapy session where TV lovers get to release their rage by screaming cathartically into a pillow because their favorite shows and actors didn’t win an Emmy Award.

The Emmy Awards ceremony is one of my favorite nights of the year, not just because I have my finest down throw pillow prepped and ready for Monday night’s telecast—and plenty of pent-up anger to let out—but because I’ve spent my entire life thinking award shows are a suitable hobby to obsess over. Being upset about the nominees and winners when they don’t align with your own taste? That’s part of the fun.

As someone who spent his rare childhood late-night TV passes staying up to watch the Emmys—everyone has an origin story—I’ve also become attuned to voters’ behavior and gotten quite good at anticipating how the night shakes out. And when they throw a wrench and surprise us (Jeff Hiller for Somebody Somewhere! Tatiana Maslany for Orphan Black!), it’s a total thrill. In those situations, I’m never happier to be wrong.

I’m a broken record on still not understanding why the Television Academy doesn’t just ask me to choose the nominees and winners for them.

So in the absence of that, ahead of Monday’s ceremony, here are my predictions for who will win (should you need a cheat sheet to fill out your own ballots), who should win (if you want to sound intelligent talking to your friends), and the snubs I’m still salty about (because I’m nothing if not a grudge-holder).

Drama Series

The Diplomat

The Gilded Age

A Knight of the Seven Kingdoms

Paradise

The Pitt

Pluribus

Slow Horses

Your Friends & Neighbors

Will Win: The Pitt… Emmy voters are such normies. Of course they’re gonna vote The Pitt.

Should Win: Pluribus… Why couldn’t the hive mind have infected Emmy voters?

If I Were in Charge Snub: Industry… Though if I were really in charge, then Heated Rivalry would be eligible and nominated here.

Comedy Series

Abbott Elementary

The Bear

Hacks

Margo’s Got Money Troubles

Nobody Wants This

Only Murders in the Building

Shrinking

Widow’s Bay

Will Win: Widow’s Bay… The “cool new kid in town” vibes are powerful.

Should Win: Hacks… But the final season of Hacks was a masterful feat.

If I Were in Charge Snub: The Comeback… I will be taking to the streets, marching against this snub for years.

Limited Series

All Her Fault

The Beast in Me

BEEF

DTF St. Louis

Love Story: John F. Kennedy Jr. & Carolyn Bessette

Will Win: DTF St. Louis… This is one of those “I didn’t get it, but happy for y’all” situations for me, but the momentum is undeniable.

Should Win: Love Story… The hold this series had on us this TV season is a pop-culture moment worth celebrating.

If I Were in Charge Snub: Half Man… Totally wild how voters went from obsessing over Baby Reindeer to basically ignoring Richard Gadd’s follow-up.

Lead Actor in a Drama Series

Sterling K. Brown, Paradise

Gary Oldman, Slow Horses

Mark Ruffalo, Task

Rufus Sewell, The Diplomat

Noah Wyle, The Pitt

Will Win: Noah Wyle… Dr. Robby’s mental health crisis?! Never has an Emmy win been more preordained.

Should Win: Mark Ruffalo… As is the Ruffalo way, I was gutted, transfixed, irritated, and moved by this performance, all in equal measure.

If I Were in Charge Snub: Antony Starr, The Boys… Perennially ignored for a powerhouse performance. But since this is my fantasy and I get to thwart eligibility rules, Connor Storrie for Heated Rivalry, duh.

Lead Actress in a Drama Series

Carrie Coon, The Gilded Age

Chase Infiniti, The Testaments

Keri Russell, The Diplomat

Rhea Seehorn, Pluribus

Zendaya, Euphoria

Will Win: Rhea Seehorn… And I will be shouting “hell yeah!” from my couch.

Should Win: Rhea Seehorn… Your time will come, Keri Russell, I swear!

If I Were in Charge Snub: Jennifer Aniston, The Morning Show… To brave the stormy skies of this kooky-as-hell show and reliably land the plane? That’s talent.

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Lead Actor in a Comedy

Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Wonder Man

Steve Carell, Rooster

Matthew Rhys, Widow’s Bay

Jason Segel, Shrinking

Martin Short, Only Murders in the Building

Will Win: Matthew Rhys… Such an easy prediction based on the deserved Widow’s Bay love.

Should Win: Matthew Rhys… C’mon, he’s incredible!

If I Were in Charge Snub: David Alan Grier, St. Denis Medical… He’s the hilarious anchor of this endlessly watchable network sitcom.

Lead Actress in a Comedy

Quinta Brunson, Abbott Elementary

Ayo Edebiri, The Bear

Elle Fanning, Margo’s Got Money Troubles

Lisa Kudrow, The Comeback

Jean Smart, Hacks

Will Win: Jean Smart… And she deserves it!

Should Win: Lisa Kudrow… But she deserves it, too! Sophie’s choice!!!

If I Were in Charge Snub: Sabrina Impacciatore, The Paper… One of the most bats--t performances of the year, and TV was better for it.

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Kevin FallonEditor-at-Large, Obsessed

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