RED, WHITE AND BOO

Trump Plays it Safe With Panic Tour Through Red America

The Daily Beast breaks down where the president has been hitting the campaign trail for 2026.

Donald Trump was spending Wednesday in Arizona and Montana as he ramped up his campaign tour with the clock ticking down to Election Day.

But a closer look at the president’s travel schedule reveals a rally path that largely plays it safe in MAGA country.

So far, he has also avoided the biggest battleground districts where House candidates would be forced to choose whether to show up for the increasingly unpopular 80-year-old president as Republicans’ odds of holding their majority have plummeted.

Republican strategist Kevin Madden said that with just three weeks to go before the election, Trump’s strategy, based on where he has been heading, would qualify as “defensive.”

“Judging by the president’s schedule, there is a strong focus on shoring up the base in Republican strongholds,” he observed.

Trump kicked off his final midterm sprint with a rally in Durant, Oklahoma, a district he won by more than 55 points less than two years ago. He followed that with a rally in Mobile, Alabama, a district he won by 36 points.

Of the fifteen rallies the president has attended or announced to date, all but one were in districts he won in 2024, and he won all but one by double digits.

His average margin of victory in the districts he’s gone to or will visit, according to the upcoming schedule, was more than 25 points.

The only state and district he’s visited for a rally so far that he didn’t win in 2024 was Syracuse, New York, a district he lost by nearly seven points. It’s currently considered a “Solid Democrat” seat by the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.

Among the districts he has visited or will visit that he did win in 2024, nine of his stops are in districts rated “Solid Republican,” two were in districts rated “Likely Republican,” and just two are in districts rated “Lean Republican.” His schedule includes no stops in “Toss-Up” House districts.

“Candidates, right now, have much more to gain by running a race that avoids the national jetstream,” Madden said. “That’s not easy in this environment, but it’s the best formula for survival.”

Among the most competitive places he’s been so far is his rally on Wednesday in Kalispell, Montana. While Trump won that district by more than 11 points less than two years ago, GOP Sen. Tim Sheehy didn’t win the district when he won statewide. The seat is currently rated “Lean Republican.”

The San Antonio district he also recently visited is rated “Lean Republican” with an open seat. It was one of the five seats Republicans hoped to flip from blue to red with redistricting last year at Trump’s behest to make it more solidly Republican.

It comes as the president’s job approval is about 20 points underwater, with only 38 percent approving of his handling of the job and 61 percent disapproving, according to the latest Economist/YouGov Poll. Among Independents, only 25 percent approve of Trump, while 72 percent do not.

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As a result, the president’s hope of avoiding catastrophe on election night largely rests on Republicans, as 80 percent still approve of him, while 20 percent do not.

A GOP official familiar with the president’s midterm strategy told the Daily Beast the plan focuses on turning out as many base voters as possible by going to red areas.

While many of the districts have historically supported Trump, the official said they’re trying to turn out the low-to-mid-propensity voters who generally don’t vote in the midterms. The argument is that if the effort is successful in turning them out, it would be a better election night than many are expecting right now.

But while the official cast Trump and the national party as the turnout machine, they admitted specific persuasion messaging is left to individual candidates who may need to get Independent voters on board to win.

The latest poll of a generic congressional ballot released on Wednesday shows Democrats with a seven-point edge.

The Economist/YouGov Poll found 46 percent would choose the Democratic candidate while 39 percent would choose the Republican candidate.

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Sarah Ewall-WicePolitical Reporter

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