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FOOL’S ERRAND

Humiliated JD Vance Faces Brutal 2028 Reality Check

The vice president’s ambitions are being hindered by his own party.

US Vice President JD Vance speaks during a Veterans Day ceremony at Arlington National Cemetery in Arlington, Virginia, US, November 11, 2026.

Kylie Cooper/Reuters

Vice President JD Vance is facing up to the reality that his path to becoming president in 2028 is narrowing.

Those close to Vance fear that the GOP’s disastrous midterm elections and a lack of support from major donors mean he already faces an uphill battle to succeed President Donald Trump.

Vance has long been considered the frontrunner to take the MAGA crown, even as the 80-year-old president has been coy about whom he will endorse.

Vance

JD Vance will need to spend months separating himself from his unpopular administration if he launches a 2028 bid.

Kevin Lamarque/REUTERS

However, it seems the vice president is aware of the mammoth task that awaits him. He is strongly tied to Trump and his near record-low approval ratings, the disastrous war in Iran, and voters massively rejecting the Republican Party and the MAGA movement as a whole.

Vance is also failing to convince key figures that he is the right man to lead the post-Trump era, with one Republican telling The Washington Post that he is aware of around four or five “pretty substantial” GOP donors who have already said they would not support a Vance 2028 bid.

Even if Vance manages to clinch the 2028 Republican nomination, a person close to him told The Washington Post that “we’re going to have big problems” if the general electorate opposes the GOP as fiercely as it does now. The Vance ally fears that if it does, the party will lose the 2028 election no matter who is leading the ticket.

Following the midterm massacre, in which Democrats won control of the House and Senate, as well as several crucial gubernatorial races, Vance desperately scrambled to distance himself from the war in Iran in what was seen as an attempt to lay the groundwork for 2028.

“There will be a lot of infighting and arguing over what happened and why that is,” Vance wrote. “The reason we lost is the war. The president himself said so last night.”

The war has dragged on for more than eight months, with no end in sight. Those close to Vance fear that his hopes, and those of other Republicans, of winning the next election will be nonexistent unless the conflict is resolved well before then.

“The question isn’t if JD can do it. It’s: If the Iran war is still happening, can any Republican do it?” a Vance ally told CNN. “If they don’t end the war in Iran, no Republican has a shot at 2028.”

Even if Vance somehow manages to spend the next two years winning back voters who turned against the GOP by criticizing his own administration’s war, others believe the vice president faces another huge hurdle.

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Eric Levine, a Republican fundraiser and longtime Vance critic, told The Washington Post that multiple top GOP donors have already said they do not want to put money into a Vance 2028 White House bid.

“I can’t speak to every donor that’s out there, but the large donors that I’ve spoken to, there’s no support for the guy, and they’re looking where they can put their money,” Levine said. “Let’s hope he concludes that he can’t win in a general election and he wants to spend more time with his family and he decides not to run.”

Sources close to Vance believe the vice president could benefit if the electorate pendulum swings back to the GOP over the next two years, as it did with Democrats following Trump’s 2024 victory.

US Vice President JD Vance is escorted to board Air Force Two with his wife Usha and children Mirabel and Alec, on the day of his travel to Alaska, at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland, US, October 5, 2026. Jacquelyn Martin/Pool via REUTERS

Vance and his wife, Usha, welcomed their fourth child this year.

Jacquelyn Martin/via REUTERS

Others believe the GOP’s wounds may take too long to heal, and Vance may opt to sit out at least the next presidential election.

“I wouldn’t be surprised by any decision he makes,” a Vance ally told CNN. “He’s only 42. He’s young enough that he can have a comeback should this environment make success impossible. It just may not be his time.”

The Daily Beast has contacted JD Vance’s office for comment.

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