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LETLOW EXPECTATIONS

MAGA Panic Spreads to Deep Red State as ‘Brutal’ Night Looms

A new potential humiliation for the GOP has emerged ahead of Tuesday’s elections.

US President Donald Trump speaks to reporters after exiting Air Force One at Joint Base Andrews, Maryland on October 29, 2026. President Trump is returning to Washington, DC after speaking at a midterm campaign event in South Carolina.

Kent Nishimura/AFP via Getty Images

Republicans fear that not even the deep-red state of Louisiana will be spared from the looming midterm embarrassment.

Panic has started to spread in the Pelican State over Donald Trump-endorsed Senate candidate Julia Letlow, as Black and Democratic-leaning early voters surge ahead of Tuesday’s election.

While Republicans still expect Letlow to beat Democrat Jamie Davis in the midterm race, sources told Politico she could win by only about 6 points—an alarming figure given that Trump won the state by 22 points in 2024. The anxiety is also a damning indication of how badly the GOP expects the midterms to go for the party, with Democrats expected to win control of the House and possibly pull off victories in several red states to flip the Senate.

“The cakewalk turned into a knife fight,” one Louisiana Republican said of Letlow’s race. “If Democrat turnout surges on Election Day, it’ll be a long night in Monroe.”

Julia Letlow reacts to the press after securing a victory in a Louisiana Republican primary runoff election, propelled by President Trump's endorsement at the DDG (Duplantis Design Group) building in Baton Rouge, Louisiana, U.S., June 27, 2026.

The prospect of Julia Letlow not running away with the Louisiana Senate race once seemed unthinkable.

Kathleen Flynn/Kathleen Flynn/Reuters

One senior Republican said Tuesday could be “quite a brutal evening” for the GOP across the country, with panic having already set in over previously unthinkable losses in crucial races in red states such as Texas, Kansas and Iowa.

“Once the dominoes start falling, it becomes hard to stop them,” they added. “Any Democrats telling you they aren’t winning the Senate [besides] a couple of seats are sandbagging expectations.”

Trump is set to host a tele-rally in support of Letlow on the eve of the midterms, also featuring House Speaker Mike Johnson, in a desperate bid to shore up support for her.

Speaker Mike Johnson, pictured with President Donald Trump on March 17, defended the president voting by mail in the Florida special election despite Trump attacking vote-by-mail as "cheating."

Donald Trump canceled midterm rallies in Kansas and Iowa this weekend to instead hold tele-rallies across 19 states, including Louisiana, before Election Day,

Kevin Dietsch/Getty Images

Analysts also believe that Trump’s decision to weigh in on a race that is supposed to be an easy Republican win suggests Letlow’s team is spooked by increased voter turnout in the state, which is usually considered a good sign for Democrats.

“The Letlow campaign probably thought they were on cruise control, and then just recently have seen some numbers that have made them a little bit nervous,” LSU New Orleans political scientist Edward Chervenak told WGNO.

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Elsewhere, other Republicans have been creative in describing how badly they expect the midterms to go for the GOP.

“I can see the light at the end of the tunnel,” one GOP strategist told Politico while describing the relief that the cycle is nearly over. “It might be a semi-truck, but at least I can see it.”

When another Republican strategist working on midterm races was asked to sum up the mood, they replied to Politico with a video of a “dumpster on fire that was being swept away by floodwaters.”

The Daily Beast has contacted Letlow’s team for comment.

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