FEW AND FAR BETWEEN

Nate Silver Flags Glaring Problem for Republicans on Election Eve

Even one potential bright spot for the GOP could actually be another warning sign, the polling expert said.

Polling expert Nate Silver struggled to find any encouraging signs for Republicans heading into the midterms.

Silver’s FLIPR model on Monday gave Democrats an 80 percent chance of retaking the Senate and even better odds of reclaiming the House. That model came as The New York Times and Siena’s final pre-election polls showed Democratic Senate candidates ahead in all seven battleground states.

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On Monday’s Still Counting podcast, Silver explained just how bleak the outlook appeared for the GOP.

“For Republicans to have a good night, like, something we don’t recognize in the known universe would have to happen,” Silver said. “They could have a pretty bad night and maybe hold the Senate—less likely, but within the boundary of sanity. But like, what’s a single good indicator for Republicans, apart from the fact that their people seem to answer polls less often?... That’s not even a good indicator. It also can mean very low voter enthusiasm.”

Silver pointed to The Washington Post’s polling team, which found a significant gap in response rates while surveying voters in Kansas. The Post published its poll, which showed Democrat Adam Hamilton leading Sen. Roger Marshall 52 percent to 43 percent, but noted that Democrats were far more likely than Republicans to participate in the survey, potentially inflating the apparent level of Democratic support. The newspaper described the poll as a “clear outlier.”

“Registered Democrats were more than twice as likely as registered Republicans to complete the survey after answering an interviewer’s call—32 percent versus 12 percent—with a similar partisan gap when texting voters to complete the survey online,” the Post reported.

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Silver said Tuesday’s results could hinge on turnout among Trump’s most loyal supporters.

“If the Trump voters show up, then we have a competitive Senate race, leaning Dem slightly,” he said. “If Republicans don’t show up, then you have a f---ing epic landslide. And FLIPR is kind of stuck halfway between those I think.”

As for prediction markets, Kalshi and Polymarket both favor Democratic Senate candidates in each of the seven battleground races covered in The New York Times poll.

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