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My Front Row Seat in the Nation's Strangest Swing State
A one-time Senate candidate on how politics replaced basketball in North Carolina—and Elizabeth Dole’s strange demise.
North Carolina is swinging in the balance as America’s most quixotic battleground state. Obama and McCain are deadlocked and Sen. Elizabeth Dole is flailing fire and brimstone at the little-known state senator who’s poised to end her 40-year career as an inside-the-Beltway icon. This year, politics is the new basketball in North Carolina. And it’s shaping up as a Carolina blue election.
It may be freezing outside tonight, but the campaign trail is hot. The state has not delivered a victory to a Democrat presidential candidate in 32 years and has yet to recover from Sen. Jesse Helms’ 30-year reign of terror. Helms’ retirement in 2002 paved the way for Elizabeth Dole, recently-retired as president of the American Red Cross, to establish residency at her mother’s home in Salisbury and mount a successful campaign to succeed Helms. John Edwards is back and there are no more delusions about Chapel Hill becoming the southern White House. Suffice it to say that there’s more pent-up venom in a battle-weary Yellow Dog Democrat than a diamondback rattlesnake coiled up in a woodpile.
Florence Nightingale unleashed her fangs yesterday. The Dole campaign lit up the airways with a stinging commercial suggesting that Democrat challenger Kay Hagan was other-than Godly.
Florence Nightingale unleashed her fangs yesterday. The Dole campaign lit up the airways with a stinging commercial suggesting that Democrat challenger Kay Hagan was other-than Godly and Democrats are seething. Kay is in fact an active member of the First Presbyterian Church in Greensboro. She attends Sunday School class regularly. She has served as a church elder. Dole’s attempt to smear her as a secularist is none other than just that. Local television and YouTube should be running a Hagan counter-attack ad tomorrow. I expect Kay will express outrage at anyone who would impugn her faith and then pivot back to her message emphasizing Dole’s voting record, absences from the state and high points of the 2008 Democrat Party economic playbook (i.e., knot a Bush around Dole’s neck.)
Politics is akin to the art of seduction tempered by the science of calculation. This advertisement should come as no surprise to the Hagan campaign. Dole fired a shot across the bow over two months ago in a press release excoriating Hagan for her plan to attend a fundraiser at the home of an advisory board member to the Godless Americans PAC. The ad is a calculated gamble by Dole and we won’t know for several days how many voters her trap seduces. The Dole campaign has a clear target: non-secular black voters. That’s why Dole has also been running commercials over black gospel and R&B AM radio stations drawing attention to the Hagan family’s membership in a country club which was segregated until about ten years ago.
At the end of a wrenching campaign season such as this, it is hard to maintain perspective. Stepping back in time one year, the outlook for North Carolina Democrats was bleak. The Obama campaign was dealing with the furor of the LGBT community over the inclusion of an "ex-gay" singer in Obama’s “Embrace the Change” gospel tour in South Carolina. Every member of North Carolina’s Democratic A-team had snubbed the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee’s overtures to run against Elizabeth Dole. Even relatively-unknown state senator Kay Hagan had dropped out of contention a week before.
The only challenger for Dole’s seat was me, a surprise first-time candidate. I’m inherently cynical when it comes to pundits and polls. It seemed clear as day to me that a senator performing as poorly as Elizabeth Dole could be had. On October 19, 2007, at a Carnegie Hall reading of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows, J.K. Rowling revealed that Dumbledore was gay. The next morning, I confirmed in a live blog that I am too. It took but ten days for DSCC head Chuck Schumer to coax Kay Hagan into a change of heart.
The race has turned out to be such a crowd-pleaser that Linda Bloodworth-Thomason couldn’t have penned a better script. The starring cast was a black presidential candidate, an ex-gay soul singer, Dumbledore, a gay Senate candidate, and a pair of ruby red slippers–a gift from Hagan, who promised to send Dole back to her husband’s home state of Kansas. All this in the state that sent Jesse Helms to five consecutive terms in the Senate.
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As a Raleigh resident, only Tivo has been able to resue me from the shock and awe of Liddy's campaign. I even caught my 5 year old with a perplexed stare during one of her ads. The most insulting point about her ads is the fact that it is so obvious to the 1st class intellect that she is targeting the lower class intellect with fear. As she attepts to fill Helms' shoes she tore a page right out of his campaign tactic textbook, if she wins she is well on her way to historically replacing him. I have already voted for Hagan, but to my surprise a few of my NRA card carrying GOP friends have growing compassion for Hagan. We might be suprised next week. Who knew this sweet looking old lady would be the first to throw off the gloves?
Great article. Jim Neal hit it out of the park as ever. Always appreciate his insights and commentary......and wish he was going to DC this year. Run again. You and Obama are the type of thoughtful political leaders that America craves.
Dole is desperate, like McCain. This is the sort of stuff that desperate politicians resort to. I think the ad is going to be a Hail Mary......
I still can't believe what happened in NC's US Senate primary. Jim Neal was clearly the best candidate as he possessed knowledge of the issues and voiced real solutions to the problems of the country. (Kay wouldn't even publicly support Barak or Hillary in the primary! Even if I disagree with you, I'd like to know your thought process. How will you represent me?) I still don't know how Kay feels about drilling for oil off of NC's coast or in Alaska, the war in Iraq, gay marriage or the solution to the economic crisis. Didn't she work for a big bank?
Why do we let the political parties be so powerful? And who are those citizen groups that sponsor the slimy ads? Makes me wonder how our country is really run.
Very fun read--you do a great job at accurately portraying the current state of affairs.
I was absolutely shocked by Elizabeth Dole's new ad yesterday. It's hard to believe that as we dwindle on the edge of this so-called 'new era' in American politics, politicians still play to the fears of Americans, rather than their needs. Six years ago, this personal attack may have worked. However, I get a feeling that Dole has put the last nail in her coffin.
As much as it pains me to say this--I hope Hagan's slippers can do the trick.
Come November 4, I have a strong feeling that North Carolina will make some great choices.
I find it absolutely refreshing to hear a former US senate candidate completely nail the environment that is brewing here in North Carolina. Everyone I meet, from every demographic is talking about Obama. Everyone I meet is also sick and tired of these last minute desperate attempts to sway voters will malicious and vile advertising. Thank you Jim for writing a great commentary on what everyone down here is thinking. Kudos!
Jim Neal, your primary campaign was transformational for so many of us, demonstrating an unrivaled energy that made it a blue-print, I believe, for your better funded opponent.
I am equally proud of your post-primary accomplishments. Keep it up.
Fantastic article! I'm mesmerized daily by the new North Carolina politics. Growing up in North Carolina it was utterly infuriating to watch my friends and neighbors be swayed by the deceit of the Republican Party. Over and over I have witnessed my community (Erwin, NC) vote against their own economic interests. Perhaps this is the year NC voters stop being swayed by Republican empty promises on social issues and vote to save their own jobs and pocket books.
I have always enjoyed your take on things. You did get my vote. I'm so glad to see it here. I have been very disappointed in the negative turn that many campaigns have taken. It disturbs me because sometimes it works. Like alot of us in NC, we are watching intently, holding our breath.
Great article. Liddy has brought shame on NC. I hope we kick that carpetbagger back to her Watergate apartment. Thanks, Jim for standing up to her when no one else had the guts.
Nice summary, Jim. I still can't believe the changes we've seen in N.C. recently. And your predictions about Kay's reaction to Dole's ad are right on!
I actually believe that a lot of the ground Democrats have picked up in North Carolina are largely credited to you, Jim Neal. Your grassroots campaign throughout the state impassioned a slew of new voters to rise up to the occasion (myself included).
Just like I think Obama benefited from the tough primary season versus Clinton, Hagan would not be on her A-game now had she not been up against such a worthy competitor. Next week will be groundbreaking for North Carolina. I'm hoping to see Obama win our state, Hagan dethrone Dole, and then the cherry on top will be Jim Neal besting Richard Burr in 2010. Who do I need to talk to to get the lawn sign now?
Great article Jim! Dole's ad was unbelievable. You are a big man to defend Kay Hagan. I wish her my best, but you should be the next Senator from North Carolina!
As a former staffer who worked for a year to help defeat Jesse Helms while on Havey Gantt's campaign in '96, I left this state at the end of the campaign thinking there was no hope for it to become even a little bit progressive - I was so upset that the majority of voters in this state would choose someone like Helms (yet again) over someone like Gantt. I was discouraged again in the 2002 and 2004 cycles when I moved back to the state to work in NC politics again. This year has been a little like being in the twilight zone as I watch NC being in play for seats that haven't been in play for so long. Your article does a nice job of summing up what this wacky political year has been like for so many of us who have lived through the conservative years of NC for too long!
Great piece, Jim. I'm glad you're sharing your insightful perspective with so many and I look foward to reading more from you! However, reading this piece only reminds me that I, and obviously many others, are even more looking foward to seeing you in public office. I think North Carolina is getting ready for you!
when I was too young to vote, my mom let me fill in the bubbles for her in the voting booth. over the years, i filled in bubbles for both bob an libby, but this election is different. her campaign is in and of itself an example of why she can't represent my state any longer-- and jim, thank you for articulating it. PS, when can I vote for YOU?
I loved this analysis. It is amazing how much change N.C. has seen this election cycle aI am glad that you had the guts to embrace yourself for who you are and your contributions to helping N.C. regain this Senate seat for someone who actually lives here and for Democrats too! I hope you run in '10!
Jim, I thought you were very courageous in battling the party establishment earlier this year, and you inspired me to get involved. I look forward to reading your future bloggings telling it like it is.
Jim,
North Carolina might be changing, but are our politicians? Will a possible Hagan victory mean anything? Or will it just be the same old conservative politician, this time with loyalties directed to the opposite side of the aisle?
I'm a Democrat. Always have been. I'll proudly vote Democratic this election, but Hagan's unwillingness to take any kind of moral stand on any issues that affect my life is quite disappointing.
After being attacked on gay issues, Hagan said she'd leave leadership decisions in the Boy Scouts up to those who lead the Boy Scouts. Simple enough answer, right? No, not really. The "leadership decisions" are more than that.
What about the kids, Sen. Hagan? That's what I asked in a recent blog of mine: http://www.interstateq.com/archives/2890/ What if your Eagle Scout son had been gay and booted from the Scouts at age 14? That's what happened to me, when I was just inches from my Eagle Award. I bet you wouldn't "leave the decisions" up to the BSA if it had happened to your own child.
Republican politics of 2008: if you don't have anything to say, smear your opponent.
This really shouldn't be all that surprising. Dole is up against a wall, and now at least she has people talking about her. A week ago, most didn't even know she was still in the Senate, let alone in North Carolina (not Kansas??!). Unfortunately, neither of these candidates are all that interested in debating each other, so the race gets played out in ads.
Looking forward to more articles, Mr. Neal, or is this a one-off?
As you may know, I live in Charlotte, which is, as you may not know, home to more Presbyterians than people...even though the joke is that there are more Baptists than people. But Charlotte Baptists are Zen Baptists (at least some of them) and they, like Presbyterians, will not cotton to a sister being treated ignominiously, even if, and perhaps especially if, she carries that big Kansan name of a fruit company.
Fact is, Republicans, the GOP, have lost the trust of not just Americans, but earthlings, and maybe even Martians. There IS water, but is there Alka-Seltzer?
Thanks for writing about these exciting times in the Old North State. I can hardly love our state more...but if it turns blue...I truly will.
Carpe Millennium!
While I was wishing I could cast my vote for you when I voted this week in the NC Senate race, I was quite pleased to find your voice right here and representing those of us living through this incredible year in NC. When did all of the national attention (i.e. "money") decide to care about NC? So many local issues and candidates have been pushed aside as the national campaigns and organizations stormed into town. And the the national spotlight on Kay Hagan has not been lost on those of us paying attention. The October surprise from Liddy Dole was the final decision for me to put my bad feelings about the Hagan candidacy aside to vote for her. Keep the analysis coming! We need REAL representation!
Did you see today's piece by Clara Bingham on Liddy Dole-- which plagiarizes this article Jim Neal? Are you two related?
My corner of NC is Asheville - a blue dot in an increasingly purple state. Jim nails NC politics statewide - here's to a new century when NC matters in national politics! I'm only sorry it won't be Jim we send to the Senate.....
I live in Chapel Hill, NC and it is a progressive place, which is known as the 'bubble.' This past election was an amazing time for NC, which is finally turning blue! I am so happy Kay Hagan sent Dole packing, actually Dole doesn't need to pack she already lives in DC! However, My partner and I voted for Jim Neal in the primary, because we believed he was the true change agent. The only draw back is the establishment of bigotry and hate in California, Florida, and Arizona.
I have a front row seat and I love it!
Thank you.
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