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The Coming Democratic Civil War
AP, Landov and Getty Images
Control of the president’s liberal-leaning agenda has been snatched by centrist Democrats in the Senate. They may just save his presidency.
The most important debate in Washington today isn’t happening between Democrats and Republicans—it’s happening between centrist Democrats and liberal Democrats. Not just the budget, but control of congress in the 2010 elections could hang in the balance.
Late last week, 16 Democratic senators declared independence by forming a new centrist caucus. Led by Indiana’s Evan Bayh, Arkansas’ Blanche Lincoln and Delaware’s Tom Carper, the group includes senators from every region and some of the party’s rising stars, including Virginia’s Mark Warner and Missouri’s Claire McCaskill. Together, their numbers are more than sufficient to deny liberals a rubber-stamp majority in the Senate. The center is flexing its muscle and now holds the balance of power.
Together, their numbers are more than sufficient to deny liberals a rubber-stamp majority in the Senate. The center is flexing its muscle and now holds the balance of power.
The group quickly came under fire from both the netroots and old-line liberals as a traitorous “over-class” challenge to the Obama agenda because of its focus on fiscal responsibility. The centrists answered in a mission-statement in a Washington Post op-ed:
As moderate leaders, it is not our intent to water down the president's agenda. We intend to strengthen and sustain it. Moderation is not a mathematical process of finding the center for its own sake. Practical solutions are practical because they offer our best chance to make a difference in people's lives today without forcing our children to pick up the tab tomorrow. The stakes are too high for Democrats to fear a policy debate. Such debates produce better legislation.
They’re right—and they may actually prove to be the president’s best allies in the long run. Because the Obama administration cannot allow itself be defined by the liberal House leadership’s agenda if they want to unite the nation and usher in a post-partisan era. And right now this centrist coalition is the only constructive force that can check liberal excesses and prevent a broad-based backlash.
We’ve seen this movie before. A charismatic new Democrat president blessed with unified control of Congress gets his legs cut out from under him when the electorate decides that the combined package is more liberal than they’d like.
Americans actually like the checks and balances of divided government—that’s why we’ve voted for it almost two-thirds of the time since 1955. And Obama’s job is made more difficult by the fact that he is trying to create a durable center-left coalition is what is essentially a center-right nation.
Committed liberals hate hearing that last point, but consider the facts: Exit polls in 2008 showed that 44 percent of American voters are self-described moderates, while 34 percent call themselves conservatives and 22 percent describe themselves as liberal. These numbers were basically unchanged from four years before. Obama managed to win not just 90 percent of liberals, but 60 percent of moderates and 20 percent of conservatives, building bridges across partisan divides to win virtually all the swing states in the nation. That brought his victory total to 28 states, compared to Reagan’s first-term 44-state win in 1980 and Bill Clinton’s 32 states in 1992. President Obama has a mandate to govern from the center, not the far-left.
After Democrats suffered the excesses of the Bush era, it’s understandable that some would want to exert an equal and opposite influence while they control Congress. But reading the 2008 election as a liberal ideological mandate is a major mistake.
As Bayh & Co. wrote, “Many independents voted for President Obama and the contours of his change agenda, but they will not rubber-stamp it. They are wary of ideological solutions and are overwhelmingly pragmatic.”
So what do voters in the center believe? A post-election survey by TargetPoint Consulting shows that 96 percent of centrist voters consider themselves conservative to moderate on fiscal issues, while 86 percent of centrist voters see themselves as liberal to moderate on social issues. To put it another way, only 4 percent of centrists describe themselves as fiscal liberals while just 14 percent describe themselves as social conservatives.
John Talks Joe
Lloyd Grove is editor at large for The Daily Beast. He is also a frequent contributor to New York magazine and was a contributing editor for Condé Nast Portfolio. He wrote a gossip column for the New York Daily News from 2003 to 2006. Prior to that, he wrote the Reliable Source column for the Washington Post, where he spent 23 years covering politics, the media, and other subjects.
The Right Dumps Carrie
Jacob Bernstein is a senior reporter at The Daily Beast. Previously, he was a features writer at WWD and W Magazine. He has also written for New York magazine, Paper, and The Huffington Post.
Wingnuts of the Week
John P. Avlon writes a column for The Daily Beast and is author of the forthcoming Attack of the Wingnuts, to be published in January by Beast Books. He is also the author of Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics. Previously, he served as chief speechwriter for New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and was a columnist and associate editor for The New York Sun.
The Next Wingnut Attack
John P. Avlon writes a column for The Daily Beast and is author of the forthcoming Attack of the Wingnuts, to be published in January by Beast Books. He is also the author of Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics. Previously, he served as chief speechwriter for New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and was a columnist and associate editor for The New York Sun.
Glenn Beck's Mob Rule
John P. Avlon writes a column for The Daily Beast and is author of the forthcoming Attack of the Wingnuts, to be published in January by Beast Books. He is also the author of Independent Nation: How Centrists Can Change American Politics. Previously, he served as chief speechwriter for New York City Mayor Rudy Giuliani and was a columnist and associate editor for The New York Sun.
If you saw the ridiculous roll out of the Republican alternative you'd know that Obama does not have a problem.
But you knew that.
But what exactly do they want to do? Their column, your column, and their statements on TV have no specifics, just airy rhetoric. I agree that debate is important, but no one knows what it is they want to debate about. And if they are supporting the presidents agenda, then why are they opposing the budget reconciliation process, which will make the budget susceptible to filibustering?
Saying that this country is center-right is just parroting moronic cable TV show hosts. People don't identify as liberal in polls because the word liberal - like the word feminist - has acquired negative connotations thanks to right-wing punditry. If you really want to know what kind of country we are, you have to ask people about specific issues.
Republicans just don't seem to understand how government is supposed to work. Since they rubberstamped everything Bush did, they frame any policy disagreements within the Democratic Party as "civil war".
Perhaps Mr. Avlon, who was part of the most embarassing campaign in U.S. Presidential history, who helped take Rudy Giuliani from presumptive Republican nominee to national laughingstock, should take a step back and realize that the Democratic Party is a big tent party. It's not run by religious fanatics and movement ideologues like his party, who tolerate no dissent and foster no consensus.
Any wonder why they are not in power any longer and are forced to write hackish articles on something called the Daily Beast?
"Save his presidency????" Guess that was for hype. Hype will get you a read but when there is no there there it makes the writer look foolish at best and snarky at worst. Obama has been in office less than three months and you are talking about failure.The ConservoDems are the ones that need to watch it. If they think destroying the Obama agenda will play well in America, they are wrong. There are many of us centrists out here beyond the Beltway and the Hudson who will not let them. The ConservoDems leader,Senator Bayh, will rue the day he started running for the presidency three years before the election. Shame on him.
Contrary to some of the previous posters here, I am a registered Democrat that agrees with Mr. Avlon's central premise. A lot of us who voted for Obama are only slightly less offended (or even horrified) by far-left politicians than far-right ones. While not a party, the mostly silent (certainly by comparison) majority in this country are those that are neither far-left or far-right. You can call that moderate or centralist or nothing at all, but it doesn't change the facts. It is possible to be turned off by the hate, intolerance and hypocrisy (often doing exactly the opposite of its stated principles) of the Republican Party's far-right - and to disagree with the resulting policies of preemptive war, suspension of inalienable rights, trickle down economics and massive debt-spending, among others - yet to be equally against far-left leaders that are acting like its their turn to raid the candy store (after jealously watching their Republican peers do so for the last 8 years) and who are too closely aligned with their own set of special interests like the unions (and the resulting policies of earmarks, attempting to give unions the power to pressure workers into forming, etc.). I for one was glad, after voting for Obama, that the Senate Democrats didn't get 60 votes. I am part of the majority that like that check, against the excesses of both sides. I have little more respect for Pelosi than I do for the Republican leaders. Honestly the only thing that makes the Democrats less offensive if that their entire party is not controlled by reactionaries that worship losers like Rush. This centralist group demonstrates that. If only the Republicans had a comparable response of moderation but they seem to have gone off the deep end.
I liked this article. I think the title is a bit much, but I have to agree with most of the content. If things swing too far left, in (hopefully) 8 years we will have another ultra conservative in the white house undoing everything Obama does. I don't want that for my kids.
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I think the term 'saving his presidency' is very apt. Bush was elected appealing to centrists but his legacy and policy were destroyed by the far right and neo-cons, the same could happen to Obama if he panders to the far left. A vast majority of our nation is centrist, appealing to either base only brings anger and resentment.
As a conservative (not far right) thinker, I am very dismayed by what I see happening to the country I was born into. I've also been around long enough that I hold faith that it will correct itself. However, I have never seen the hate and bile dominate so much of the public attention as in these times. It is viril.
I have long thought (and never more than now) that our founders NEVER intended for house and senate reps. to make careers of what used to actually be public service. Term limits for congress has never been needed more.
My big question mark on term limits is would it reduce or only further increase the influence of special interests. Because that is the biggest problem with Congress -- they don't represent the people, they represent special interests as middlemaned by the literally hundreds-of-thousands of lobbyists. I don't like how incumbents are virtually guaranteed re-election. But I haven't seen clear evidence that term limits would not just allow special interests to basically own the candidates, using their money and influence to constantly churn in their hand-picked favorites. If so, that would be even worse than the status quo.
"Save his presidency?" My, my. What wishful thinking on your part. And once again you roll out that same Republican talking point -- the country is center right. Get over yourself; you'll have another chance in eight years if you can ever stop being the Party of No, Party of Nothing, Party of Racists, Party of Bigotry, Party of Tax Cuts, Party of Unregulated Free Markets, Party of Anger, Party of Paranoia, Party of Hypocricy, Party of Lies, Party of Christian Fundamentalists, Party of No New Ideas, Party of Ideology, and finally, the Party of NO RESPONSIBILITY. You've got a lot of work to do on yourselves. Stop wasting time criticizing President Obama.
Obama ran for Change the change a lot of American's think we need, & He Won the election with a Major Majority .. now some conservocrats want to slow down His agenda ? they need to wake up and smell that conservative coffee is really just a sugary snake oil, and not coffee at all.. 30 years of insane trickle down economics, Enough! Get on with the Agenda .. Break Up the Media, Break up Corps that are to big to fail, they're to big to exist! Make Corps responsible for themselves, No Individual Rights, No Corp Welfare, re-regulate the Banks and Insurance Co's regulate Hedge funds, now the easy stuff Climate change, get this nation Off of foreign Oil ... Single Payer Health Care.. that should keep you all busy for a few years.
Excellent blog.
The "Stimulus Bill" was rammed through by the liberal wing of the Dems before anyone could catch their breath. This sort of thing creates a wake that coalesces factions.
I welcome a Dem Party debate and I hope the centrists do save Obama from being owned by the extreme liberal wing.
I hope they can all pull this off together for the next 8 years and longer.
This "article" is a laugh riot. Why would anyone listen so some from Giulianis campaign? You know, the campaign that spent FIFTY MILLION DOLLARS, and only won only ONE Primary vote. And this qualifies him to give political commentary?
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Centrists cant save Obama from what is sure to be a ONE TERM presidency. Keep the Change!
I voted for Obama but quite frankly I am not happy with his marxist approach. Sorry but big government spending doesn't stimulate the economy and his selection of Sect. Geithner is a good example that Obama is learning on the job.
Obama must an effort to reach to a broad base of centrists and independents who voted for him.
Interesting and relevant article. Kudos to the centrist democrats for recognizing a right of center Nation. But lets be real here. They may succeed in diminishing the power of pelosi and the reid-ness, but their real battle will be pulling an extreme leftist ideologue to the center whose agenda is as far as it gets from the center regardless of the continued flowery oration of campaign rhetoric. Empty promises anyone?
OK Rahm
It's your job
To dope slap
These
Self-serving
meatheads
Into realizing that
America sent
58 Democrats to Washington
for a reason.
This deals with a big stereotype--so-called liberal majority in the Senate, a reflection o fauthor's Guiliani background.. When did such a majority ever exist? Who are the members of this so-called majority? You would have a problem coming up with 17 names.
The Obama pattern
1. Spread a rumor that Obama is going to do something liberal (decriminalize marijuama, end don't ask don't tell, etc.).
2. Obama supporters use this as prove that Obama is indeed a democrat.
3. Obama then ignores the rumor or comes out against the idea all together.
Result: Obama thinks he is scoring points with "centerists" while true democrats end up paying the price.
OH and over $780 billion in corporate welfare is not a left idea nor is it a socialist idea.
Believe it or not there was a time democrats were against corporate welfare.
"But reading the 2008 election as a liberal ideological mandate is a major mistake."
Actually, it isn't. Obama's election platform was extremely liberal, and resulted in a 55% majority. How does that fit with "poll numbers" probably generated by the GOP? Furthermore, the most popular question for the POTUS's recent Internet Town Hall Meeting was the legalisation of Cannabis.
I suppose this rightwing literary hack would claim that issue to be moderate as well. In my world there's reality, cause and effect, and rationality...but that's just me.
Two reasons this article is off the mark and the "centrists" will screw Americans: Tim Geithner and Larry Summers (or, as they might rightly be called, the foxes in charge of the hen house)
Oh now...we forgot to mention one very important point...Evan Bayh has taken $l,000,000 from lobbyists....hmmmm no wonder you failed to mention this...he is working for the lobbyists and a paid off politican...he doesnt give two bits about us ...he is just there to make sure he keeps the lobbyists happy. Why dont you report everything if you are going to do a article on these "so called" well meaning dems.
Thank you.
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