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Our Friend Iran?
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Reformers surged ahead of Friday’s elections, says Leslie H. Gelb, which could put the tumultuous country on a path to becoming America’s most important partner in the region.
Plus, read more insight on Iran's election from other Daily Beast writers.
If President Ahmadinejad doesn’t steal Iran’s presidential election on June 12, and if Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei doesn’t overturn the results, that tumultuous country could be on a path to becoming America’s most important partner in the region. Those are big ifs. And the road forward will be most difficult. But so far, the electioneering has probably been the freest ever in that part of the world, and the leading challenger, Mir Hussein Mousavi, talks like a man the White House could work with on some of the most vexing and dangerous regional issues.
Whatever happens this time, Americans will finally be able to see clearly that Iran is not a monolith totally dominated by crazy clerics dedicated to Western destruction. They’ll see an Iran split between the familiar Islamic revolutionaries uniting clerics and the poor, on the one hand, and the commercial classes now allied with the educated, women and youth, on the other. They’ll see that the crazies, even if they hold on to power this time, are losing their grip. They’ll see other Iranian leaders who want to rejoin the world and will adjust their nation’s policies accordingly.
American leaders, in particular, will have to keep their hands off, let events play out, and let Iran’s moderate elements do things their way.
All of which is to say that odds are improving that sooner rather than later Iran will come to a strategic crossroad, and move to reconnect with the West and the United States. This emerging Tehran and President Obama’s Washington are bound to find a common bond in fighting extremism both in Iran and among its volatile neighbors. But American leaders, in particular, will have to keep their hands off, let events play out, and let Iran’s moderate elements do things their way.
Here’s the situation as election day nears. Bollywood could not have cast the candidates more devilishly than the Iranians themselves.
Of course, there is the likely “winner,” the incumbent president Mahmoud Ahmadinejad. While his rhetoric is bizarre, he himself is quite cunning. He plays almost exclusively to the religious extremists, nationalists, and the downtrodden who made the 1979 revolution. His quixotic policies have left the economy with extensive poverty and an inflation rate still over 15 percent annually. To capitalize on the strong sense of Iranian nationalism, he presses ahead with a nuclear program to show how he and Iran can defy America and the West.
The chief contender is Mousavi, a former 1979 revolutionary himself and prime minister during Iran’s war against Iraq. According to The Washington Post however, “most Iranians say that Mousavi, like many of the founders of the Islamic republic, has changed. They say the dogmatic hothead who wanted to spread the Islamic revolution around the world has become a pragmatic politician who firmly believes in Islamic governance, but also has called for greater freedoms and civil-rights protections.” His platform stresses Iran’s need to get sanctions lifted, to become part of the global economy, and to end its international isolation. Interestingly, he goes out of his way to condemn Ahmadinejad for denying the Holocaust. Tellingly, he often campaigns with his wife and younger people, the main targets of his campaign. On a side note, Mousavi’s wife has threatened to sue Ahmadinejad if he did not apologize for disparaging her during the recent televised debate between Ahmadinejad and Mousavi.
The other conservative contender is none other than the former head of the zealous Revolutionary Guard, Mohsen Rezaei. Rezaei is on Interpol’s Wanted list for crimes relating to the human-rights situation in Iran as well as the 1994 bombing of a Jewish center in Buenos Aires. On the reformist side, Mousavi is joined by Mehdi Karroubi, former speaker of the Iranian parliament. He is said to have support in rural areas, which could cut into Ahmadinejad’s vote there.
The vote takes place this Friday. While the conservative Rezaei has little chance himself, he could win just enough votes to prevent Ahmadinejad from securing a clear majority. In that case, a runoff would take place on June 19 between the two top candidates. It is widely believed that the higher the turnout the more likely Ahmadinejad will lose.
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Leslie H. Gelb, a former New York Times columnist and senior government official, is author of Power Rules: How Common Sense Can Rescue American Foreign Policy (HarperCollins 2009), a book that shows how to think about and use power in the 21st century. He is president emeritus of the Council on Foreign Relations.
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Hitler was elected too. What defines a dictator is the way it governs and not if it was elected or not
It turns out that he acts like a dictator and has the power of a dictator - so he's a duck?
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Obama will take the prize for the Muslim world fighting their own radicals and for whatever is to become of Middle East peace negotiations. It was a process that has been in motion since Carter and continued on through Bush. I agree he is playing chess but he didn't start the game and that is what I think is being insinuated by the media. The Iranian people have long been western supporters and it only the gov't which has shut down cosmopolitan thought. Iranian's have been well educated and not in Iran.
Very true, I know many Iranians. (All more Californian then I am.... )
We're finally getting back to our successful covert operations which led to critical election victories in devastated postwar Europe when communism was still a credible political force.
Although I'm not cetrain about his methods, I believe that the President is taking an intelligent approach to this matter, we need to remove religion from our conflict, stop calling it a muslim problem, radical islam, et cetera.
Kooks are Kooks, regardless of their religion.
We don't see reports about the Radical christians when we talk of an abortion doctors murder, we talk about "fringe groups" and the "anti-abortion extremeists", we don't address the religion of the murderer.
If we can stop seeing the religion of the people we're in conflict with, then we can address the root problems between us, and religion is not the problem.
Excellent!
The more America keeps their hands off, the better. We need to send in Western culture: t-shirts, blue jeans, i-pods, secular music, films, and literature etc. If we play our cards right, we can win this the same way we toppled Russia: reach out to the moderate and liberal younger generations who are sick to death with the same old stuff.
Yep, you're absolutely right. Even better, the internet is so influential on their large population of youth that it is certain that they will change rapidly. The older generation will not be able to keep up with their increasingly progressive children and their culture will change. It is inevitable.
I've always felt that the most powerful weapon for change the West has is its culture.
Granted, there are things in Western culture that are NOT good... i.e. over-consumption.
You know, as Iran pulls stunts like blocking Facebook and the internet, it's a loud and clear message that they know full well that there are multitudes of young people connected -- and that's something the old authorities fear. Blocking the internet is demoralizing. Doing that to your youth will only backlash in a bad way.
I've got children. I've learned that if you demoralize them and take away what they see is a right privilege, they'll learn to resent and rebel against you.
Exactly... it's cheaper too.
From what I've read and heard from Persian friends, they already have Western stuff. The big change will be being able to enjoy it--or to choose not to--in public, without the approval of any authorities. It's definitely a good sign. Let's hope Mousavi wins and is everything everyone's hoping for...
amen someone said it finally. Regan didn't win the coldwar, MTV did (then they went and destroyed popular music but that is another article).
They are loosing the common enemy that united them all.Obama, is removing it, and they will start to fall apart on each other, and there are many who want to be an ally of this president,his goodwill and the US.That does not mean he is weak.He is smart.
If Ahmadingbat wins, Israel will bomb Iran by the first of August, and EVERY Sunni nation--Egypt, Saudi Arabia etc-- as well as Russia who now has their Gazprom deal secured, will be secretly pleased and publically outraged. The Iranian people know this all too well, See the Iranian art project Rock, Paper Scissors-- direct reference to Game theory and the fact that many Iranians are just sick of the lies and games of the clerical elites who promised so much more when they deposed the Sha. No free press is not going well in Iran.
And if pigs had wings they could fly. Let's hope that Mr. Gelb is right. We did see the USSR fall, and the Iron Curtain lift which most of us born after WWII right up until it happened never expected to see in our lifetimes. Of course, it was Ronald Reagan's policies that did it after Jimmy Carter's policies of appeasment failed miserably, and those are the politices that Jimmy Obama is following. But Iran isn't the USSR, and maybe its people are ready for a change even if Obama isn't willing to confront their corrupt leadership? Let's hope?
I am not sure Iran. It is encouraging to see moderate voices starting to gain some influence. But, you are correct Iran is not the former USSR. The USSR were smarter and more politically shrewd then the fanatical clerics and that still didn't help them in the end.
Are you serious? Really? You have a very shallow and self important perspective on foreign policy. I bet you're one of those people that thinks we should invade every country we disagree with and impose democracy on them.
Democracy can't be imposed, it's a natural process which the people have to desire and reach out for. All America can do is act as an example of what democracy can provide and to stop this insane rhetoric decrying Islam as inherently vile ore criminal.
We just don't have the resources to do it any other way.
Wow... you are part of the problem.
As usual, wonderful article, Dr. Gelb. Even if Ahmadinejad manages to squeak it through, with the help of fraud and Grand Ayatollah Khameni, his days of Anti-Americanism, Holocaust-denying and all-out extremism are at an end. His power will be significantly diminished, and if he wants to avoid severe social unrest--massive protests that could lead to serious instability in all aspects of the country, he will have to change course. If anything, this election has severely weakened Ahmadinejad and exposed serious cracks in his government. Coupled with the election in Lebanon, it is indeed a sign of a new wave of moderation hitting the Middle East. Now all we have to worry about, as you so well point out in your article, are the extremists here at home and in the country that is our closest alliy in the region, who will be trying in all earnestness to f&%$k things up.
I guess not much will change on account of who is Iran's next President. The real politicla authority is vested in the country's supreme Leader Ali Khamenei.
http://thetrajectory.com/blogs/?p=589
So far the supreme leader's have taken rather back seat positions, typically only using their power to veto the decisions of elected officials.
They're still accountable to a group of clerics, who are and aren't chosen by the people.
We could be witnessing history. It may be wishful thinking, and it is certainly too early to tell, but Obama's gestures and outreach to the Muslim world, specifically his Cairo speech, could mark a historical turning point in the general attitudes of Muslims toward the extremist wings of their societies, like al queda and the taliban.
Certainly things are heading in that general direction. Obama's Cairo speech seemed specifically directed towards moderates in the Muslim world. It was strategically given just days before the Lebanese elections, which resulted in a clear majority for the moderates like Hariri.
Meanwhile Mousavi, a moderate in Iran, is surging against an increasingly bellicose Ahmadinejad in that election, and could close it out with the help of a young discontented populace. Whether the Ayatollah would let a moderate win is anyone's guess, but if he does we could be moving into an unprecedented period of relatively good relations with one of the Axis of Evildoers.
For those like Gingrich who snidely dismiss Obama's outreach to the Muslim world as "intellectual nonsense", they could be running the risk of looking foolish should all this come to fruition. Of course, things could go disastrously wrong, who knows.
I personally find it refreshing that America is now projecting an image of a nation willing to work with other nations, instead of thinking that not talking to people was going to solve problems. It costs too much to impose our beliefs on other nations, and we're broke.
What exactly is Dr. Gelb smoking? The political process in Iran is virtually meaningless. Policy is controlled by the religious elites led by the Grand Ayatollah, of which there have been two since the Iranian Revolution. The mantra of the Iranian Revolution remains "Death to America." The purpose of the Iranian nuclear program is weaponization. The purpose of weaponization is to create the chaotic conditions that would hasten the return of the 12th Imam. It is no accident that the current President of Iran is a fervent believer in this apocalyptic set of beliefs. The idea that Mousavi is a "moderate" is an illusion, designed as theater for "the West" and to give the Iranian people the misguided belief that their vote counts. Absent a demonstration of Aquino/Phillipino-style "people power," Iran will remain on its current course and its revolution will seek its logical course.
Thank you.
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