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Gary Sick

How to Keep Iran in Check Without War

What if Iran got a bomb? Well, unless they buy one intact, the process of actually moving to weaponization is likely to be noticed, so one must ask what happens between the moment when they decide to proceed to a bomb and when they actually have it. That period, which is apt to be several years, would be the true case of the ticking time bomb, and that would be the moment for consideration of extreme pressure tactics, probably with very wide support in the international community. Iran knows this, and that is itself a disincentive for them to proceed.

The real purpose of negotiations, in my view, is to build a system of monitoring and inspections that will (1) provide maximum early warning of a potential future Iranian decision to “break out;” and (2) insure the maximum possible interval between that moment and the moment where Iran could actually have a bomb. Iran has said on several occasions that it is willing to accept such an enhanced inspection regime, but it will no doubt insist on a price. That, I think, is what the negotiations should be about.

Can the United States and Iran ever rebuild a sufficient level of confidence to be able to work together effectively on nuclear, regional or other issues? With the present regime in power, that is probably asking too much. The one bright spot, however, is that Ahmadinejad, despite all his swagger and bluster, is a secondary figure at best in the actual decision-making on major security policy. Any Iranian decisions taken in real negotiations will be taken by consensus. Based on everything we know, Ahmadinejad’s voice, however shrill, will be drowned out by the real architects of Iran’s foreign policy, whose primary interest is the national interest of the country as they see it. The real question is whether the clamor of domestic politics in both the United States and Iran will prevent the pragmatists on both sides from being heard.

Gary Sick served on the National Security Council staff under Presidents Ford, Carter and Reagan. He was the principal White House aide for Iran during the Iranian Revolution and the hostage crisis and is the author of two books on U.S.-Iranian relations.

For inquiries, please contact The Daily Beast at editorial@thedailybeast.com.

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September 23, 2009 | 12:51pm
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didimagnin

I am far more worried that Israel has nuclear arms and is prepared to use them on Iran....The Ayatollah has said that nuclear weapons are agsinst the beliefs of Islam. Believe him.

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3:45 pm, Sep 23, 2009

OldCrow

And you think the Ayatollah is telling the truth?
Just like the 'democratic' elections that took place this summer...

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9:37 pm, Sep 23, 2009

NebulaStardust

I too worry that Israel has nuclear arms with no question from the USA. In the UN the USA has vetoed the (at last count) last 29 UN resolutions against Israel's behaviour. Israel has illegally bombed sites in the ME and are the most likely to use Nuclear Force except for the USA that has seriously contemplated it in the near past.

Now it's Obama's war and it is being directed by the coalition toward and into Pakistan. This movement is not by accident. The Generals are not that stupid. But now we are forcing the play of a very unstable nuclear power; Pakistan. A lot of hate toward the US coalition has grown with the constand bombing with US drones over the Pakistan border killing hundreds of innocent Pakistanis. The US has also blasted them with missles. This is entirely illegal on the world stage but even the Nobel Prize winning Obama has not stopped the continued atrosities. Our world is becoming more and more perverted by violence as we allow the 'evil empire' of the US and UK to kill and torture innocents and always blaming someone else.

It is not for us to keep a rebellious yet peaceful Iran in check but to keep the USA in check!
http://butterflystorms.bravehost.com/SchooloftheAmericas.html
http://butterflystorms.bravehost.com/Articles-On-Iran.html
http://butterflystorms.bravehost.com/Fallujah.html

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10:11 pm, Oct 15, 2009

mcmchugh99

I don't believe anything that No Count Ahmadinejad and his Supreme Fuehrer say--not a single word. It is a fascist regime that I hope will be overthrown by its own people, and then maybe we can have improved relations afterwards.

On the other hand, I do not want war with Iran. We could not afford it anyway, and would not know how to deal with the mess afterwards even if we did "win". Nation building is not exactly our thing, especially in that part of the world.

Nor have I believed that Iran would actually use nuclear weapons even if they had any, simply out of fear of massive retaliation. Nuclear weapons are only useful in deterring an attack, not in actual war fighting.

Sanctions would just be one part of a containment strategy, although that won't work as long as Russia and the other countries to the north are part of it. I would hope for sanctions designed to do damage to the regime itself rather than the Iranian democratic movement.

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7:39 pm, Sep 23, 2009

gak001

I still believe that democratic reform is inevitable in Iran. It really just becomes a waiting game.

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7:49 pm, Sep 23, 2009

This comment has been removed by The Daily Beast's editors.

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2:12 am, Sep 24, 2009

NebulaStardust

Please let's look a Iran from a modern historical perspective. Early on in the 20th century England and a few others created countries out of the deserts, mountains and valleys of the Middle East and after the 2nd World War England began changing its large navy from coal to oil. They contracted with various countries in the ME and began taking oil. However, England now Britain, didn't pay the agreed royalties.

Iran elected a president, Mossandeq, who had run on a platform of nationalization to gain control over Iranian oil to prevent continued theft by the British. In 1953, the British were astounded, and since neither MI5 nor MI6, had the means to get rid of Mossandeq they went to the USA for help. The USA sent in the CIA and took Mossandeq out of office and had him put in jail while the USA and the UK brought back the cruel Shah of Iran from exile and made him a puppet leader of Iran.
The CIA then created SAVAK, the Shah's police, who were basically a CIA controlled Death Squad. The CIA remained in control of SAVAK. They killed thousands even throwing students to their deaths from schools' rooftops. This continued for decades.

Jumping ahead to the 80s, the USA under Reagan went to war with Iraq with Iraq as its proxie. Reagan had the embargos on Iraq changed to allow the US and other countries to supply weapons some of which were poison gasses. Saddam not only gassed the Kurds but gassed and killed 3,000 Iranian defenders on Iranian soil. We heard a lot about the Kurds but little about Iranians. The USA was inherently complicit in both gassings. The Iraq invasion went on for 8 years as Iran eventually repelled the Iraqi forces. The Iraqis were also helped financially by the US, given US weapons and advisors were provided on the ground. Iraq also got US Spy satallite intell so they knew where to attack with gas.

The US continued to be antagonistic to Iran as the years passed. I left out the hostage taking because it was such a tiny event compared with the anquish of Iran being attacked so much by the US and it was not a state impelled hostage taking as is Guantanamo Bay Detention Centre.

Nevertheless the USA and the UK especially are continuing to accuse Iran of wrong doing even after their decades of cruelty to the Iranian people. Iran, unlike Brittain and the states has not invaded any country for over 200 years. Perhaps the US and the UK could try for this record and leave the world alone.
http://intolerablebehaviour.premium.ws
http://intolerablebehaviour.active.ws
http://ButterflyStorms.bravehost.com
"Our lives begin to end the day we become silent about the things that matter." MLK Jr.
Peace

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9:50 pm, Oct 15, 2009
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How to Keep Iran in Check Without War

by Gary Sick

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