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Behind the Democratic Wipeout
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The GOP built its victories in Virginia and New Jersey on financial anxieties. The Daily Beast's Peter Beinart on why the economy drove voters to the polls—and what the results say about 2010.
After Republican victories in Virginia and New Jersey and a near-miss in upstate New York, conservatives have supposedly gotten their groove back. But it’s not the same old groove. In the late 1990s, it was social issues that obsessed the American right: abortion, gay rights, gun control, Monica Lewinsky. After 9/11, it was the war on terror. Now both obsessions have faded. Doug Hoffman—the right-wing insurgent candidate for Congress in the 23rd District of New York—didn’t even list his position on the Afghanistan surge on his Web site. Bob McDonnell, Virginia’s new Republican governor-elect, studiously downplayed social issues in his campaign. And the hard-right “tea party” movement that is threatening to take over large swaths of the Republican base ignores foreign policy and social issues almost entirely. For them, as for the Republican candidates who won yesterday, what matters are deficits, bailouts and government spending. In other words, economics is the new culture war.
It’s no coincidence that both Chris Christie and Doug Hoffman, although socially conservative, focused their campaigns on economics instead. Had they not, they would have had no chance.
The first sign of this shift came during the presidential election last year. John McCain wanted to make the 2008 campaign a referendum on the surge in Iraq. Sarah Palin wanted to make it a contest between high falutin', Ivy-League cosmopolitans and red-blooded, bear-hunting Americans. But they both failed. When the stock market melted down last fall, economic issues swept everything aside, and McCain, who seemed bored by the economic meltdown, and Palin, who seemed bewildered by it, were swept away, too.
Today, however, the right has adjusted. And as a result, we’re witnessing a new style of conservative activism: motivated, above all, by economic fury. It’s a bit like what happened during the Depression, when the cultural issues that had dominated American politics in the 1920s—Prohibition, immigration, the Ku Klux Klan—faded and the right coalesced around deep hatred of Franklin Roosevelt’s New Deal. Today’s shift also vaguely mirrors the early 1990s, when Ross Perot, who exuded indifference to cultural issues, won over large numbers of ex-Republicans by making the deficit a symbol of government run amok. It’s no coincidence that former Majority Leader Dick Armey, the closest thing the “tea party” movement has to a national leader, is a libertarian who was always uncomfortable with the religious right’s social agenda, and publicly regrets his support for the Iraq War.
• Mark McKinnon: The GOP Surge Isn't Obama's Fault
• Linda Hirshman: Get Gay Marriage Off the Ballot
• Max Blumenthal: How the Right's Point Man Went Down in Ny-23
• More Daily Beast writers on the election resultsIn policy terms, the new, economically oriented right isn’t all that coherent. It doesn’t make much sense to launch a jihad against deficit-spending at the very moment when deficit-spending (along with monetary stimulus) is the only thing standing between America and an unemployment rate high enough to apply for a driver’s license. But politically, there are advantages to the right’s new economic focus. The GOP’s emphasis on social issues played well in the South, but it hurt the party in the libertarian West, where Democrats have made major gains. It also contributed to the party’s near-extinction in the Northeast, where even many Republicans can’t stand Southern-fried fundamentalism. It’s no coincidence that both Chris Christie, who yesterday won the governor’s race in New Jersey, and Doug Hoffman, the congressional candidate who almost won in upstate New York, although socially conservative, focused their campaigns on economics instead. Had they not, they would have had no chance.
But although the right’s new libertarian thrust paid dividends yesterday, there may be problems down the road. The tea party crowd is ideologically hostile to Obama’s expansion of government; they genuinely (if nuttily) believe that large deficits and a larger welfare state are extinguishing their freedom. Most Americans, by contrast, don’t care all that much how large government is; they just want the economy to improve. If that happens by the time Obama runs for reelection, then the right’s anti-government crusade will likely strike swing voters as irrelevant and obnoxious. After all, the last presidential candidate who told voters to ignore an economic recovery and focus on gaping deficits was Walter Mondale in 1984. He lost 49 states.
Peter Beinart, senior political writer for The Daily Beast, is a professor of journalism and political science at City University of New York and a senior fellow at the New America Foundation.
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this is what we need in America. we need help everyone people at the top, and the help yourself people locally, think about it. people locally know whats best for their own and are less open to things their own citizens dont need, however they would be counteracted to the people at the top who are in touch with what everyone needs. so you get the things everyone needs from the top and the things only you need from the local. sounds to me like a way to cut down on the bureaucracy and make for a better america
This comment has been removed by The Daily Beast's editors.
Good article - although in a county like America, I feel that if it weren't for the tactically idiotic move of putting social issues at the forefront, and (unfairly) lending ammunition to the religious = stupid = Republican bandwagon, then the GOP would win comfortably every time, regardless of the economy.
A majority of Americans class themselves closer to the libertarian end of the scale than the left, indeed the entire nation is founded on libertarian principles that, fortunately from my perspective, many people revere to Biblical levels. If a party was to offer the people this option, but without constantly embarrassing itself as the Republicans do, then they'd have no problem.
In this regard this could be a very meaningful set of results.
Yup... More Libertartian than either of the two parties want to acknowledge.
The Dem's had better hurry up and get whatever they really want passed as soon as possible, because the economic situation will not be significantly better by next years mid-terms. Obama is doing a great job, but he is no financial magician.
Obama is doing a great job ?????
Just tell me one
Obama's record is a disaster, but he's definitely a magician, capable of fooling millions.
Obama should have made getting people back to work his main priority. Then if the unemployment rate had gone down, he could run on that in 2010, then address healthcare. Jobs are the only thing people are talking about. When you can't make the mortgage or rent, no much else matters.
If you can't afford your Health care you are NOT going to be alive to work or pay rent anyway ... !
Your name says it all.
Is that the best argument you can come up with for socializing healthcare? But maybe you're right, if you don't have to pay for healthcare and you are unemployed and homeless you can always check into the hospital for few days. The problem with this, as I see it, for as many people who truly need this assistance there are many more who will abuse it.
Please follow all the news. You can't just create jobs out of thin air. The economy has to recover first or their are no business to hire people. Every report I have read or heard indicates that while the economy is shifting and improving, jobs are ALWAYS and lagging indicator and don't return as fast. It takes time and having yahoos making stupid statements and sharing doesn't help with peoples response in general. Just look at the state of confusion Fox News is able to create.
What business school did you go to? Jobs a lagging indicator? That's rich I must have missed the class on Obamanomics at Wharton. Lagging indicators: 1. The average duration of unemployment (inverted)
2. The value of outstanding commercial and industrial loans
3. The change in the Consumer Price Index for services
4. The change in labor cost per unit of output
5. The ratio of manufacturing and trade inventories to sales
6. The ratio of consumer credit outstanding to personal income
7. The average prime rate charged by banks
This is an excellent and salient point, '76. Unfortunately, the "Great Messiah" Oblahma is not even as intelligent as you are, and would never get your simple, logical thinking.
Glenda you are absolutely right. Obama has missed the mark with the huge deficit-weilding stimulus which has stifled most spenders. The Congressional Budget Office reckons the Obama administration's planned budgets would increase the debt-to-GDP ratio from 41 percent in 2008 to 82 percent in 2019. Higher interest rates would aggravate the debt burden. This is going to hamper huge bills on anybody's wish list.
Only 0.5% of the stimulus has been for small businesses so far and they help to create the most jobs.
The american people were sold a bill of goods about how the Democrats were going to be fiscally responsible -- and it has not been so. The Republicans -- if they stay away from the social issues have an enormous opportunity to build on the wave and gain serious momentum.
Obama has not done one thing to create a job - that doesnt go to a union member or a teacher (union member) or a government employee (union member). I guess he did toss the auto companies several billion dollars (union members) after he gave the companies to them. 2010 is fast approaching and the next "porkulus" bill wont go over any better than the last one - as I have to pay for the damn things!
I would hardly call a couple of Governor's seats a wipe out for the Democrats. It was to be expected! There are always those voters in the electorate who have short memories. The kind who can always be counted on to cut off their nose to spite their face. They keep voting for the same old Republican Party no matter how badly they get screwed!
How can a governor make a difference in the economy?
Of more interest was the NY 23rd congressional district where voters in a Repubican district just said "No!" to the Club for Growth candidate and Palin and Beck who supported him.
Independents and mainstream Republicans want no part of the conservatives.
that was certainly a personality-driven race.
Black voters in New Jersey and Virginia did not go to the vote for their governors. They turned out in greater numbers for Obama because it was a historic vote for them. Obama will not be able to count on the African-Americans to take the effort to vote for him in 2012. The excitement is gone.
"Obama will not be able to count on the African-Americans to take the effort to vote for him in 2012. The excitement is gone."
With all due respect, youre wrong. If the Republicans throw out a "Stereotypical" Republican candidate (like a Sarah Palin or someone that Glenn Beck is drooling over), watch the African Americans and Hispanics come out in droves....again.
Also, the excitement of the first black president will never (I repeat...never) be gone among African Americans. Add that to him running against a Right Wing wackjob in 2012 and Obama will win even more easily than he did in 2008.
Heck, it was Republican Governors who won. Dems gained two more House seats. My state (Indiana) has been a "Red State" but it has had its fair share Democratic Governors. Even though Barack Obama won the State of Indiana, Mitch Daniels (Republican) easily won the Governorship with the same people that voted for Barack Obama. People can separate state politics and federal politics.
By the way, it wasn't a "wipeout". It was a draw at best. Add to that the fact that Virginians said their votes had nothing to do with President Obama. Not exactly the "Republican Revolution" that Rush and Hannity were expecting.
Latino voters will be back to vote in great numbers. Latinos will soon be the single most numerous group in the country. They will govern and repair this country that others have neglected.
Blacks? No. The attention span in American politics for most has expired. That was their last hurrah. Certainly there are some African-Americans who have enjoyed financial and social success in America. They will be as involved in politics as any other group. But the majority of Blacks will not be motivated to turn out to vote unless it directly benefits them.
Post-it I am tired of your racist drivel. Are you mad because your wife left you for a black man? Why are you so angry?
I do agree with you that the African-American vote will continue to be strong for the president, However they are a very small percentage of the American voting public. If things continue down the current path Mr. Obama will not be re-elected because the independent pendulum will swing back to the conservative side.
In media hyperbole two governorships means the end of the Democratic party. Ten months ago they were digging the Republican party's grave right here at the Daily Beast. Meanwhile they ignore the one really interesting result, the NY district that returned its first Democratic representative in 150 years. It really doesn't say much for the Democrats but the Republicans should be looking at that election very closely.
What rock did this guy just crawl out under. All over the news I heard how the party out of power has won these two elections for the past 24 years. The democrats fielded a woefully inadequate candidate in VA and Corzine supporters of the past are not at all happy with the way he has governed. Add to that that the one place where candidate strength was equal in NY the democrats won a seat that had been Republican since reconstruction. How can you possibly suggest the Republicans have a winning strategy. They just got lucky. I as a recent defector from the Republican party I hope to see more of this, because they won't be able to win in a significant way if they keep up their current tactics. Thank you Sarah Palin and Dick Cheney.
I love how the pundits are spinning these off year elections as a turnabout for the country, When in reality (and they know it ) these elections yesterday are extremely bad news for the GOP, The split between the Republicans and Conservatives has solidifided which effectively kills off the GOP of Reagan and ushers in the reign of Palin, Beck, and Limbaugh and their message to the party is, If you're not white, christian, homophobic, xenophobic and full of hate you need not apply, The only thing left to settle now is where will all that GOP money go ? Will it go to the whackem and stackem looneys or will they take that money to the middle as Libertarians and try to regroup ? On the National scene as witnessed in the one Congressional race in New York the Democrats are still in firm control of the House and meanwhile Ronald Reagan twists in his grave
Beautifully said. Great post.
They are waiting anxiously for their next Reagan to appear, but they're secretly hoping the Rapture will happen first. Then they'll be rid of us apostate critical thinkers for good!
So, for the lib dems
. . . - - - . . .
guess what that spells, for you who cannot read it's
dot dot dot dash dash dash dot dot dot.
Nothing is Mr. Obama's fault. He is the teflon don of politics.
A true test of Mr. Obama's granny state politics is in 2010. (oh yeah, it's not a nanny state, a nanny will correct a child, a granny will not). Hold off on the lib agenda untill after the vote, resign if tou loose and let the new congress vote.
Power to the people!
Oh goody! More secret decoder ring jingoisms from Bullwinkle.
Really, your post hurts me to the quick. A rather good reply, arguing such good points and
sorry I was reading another post, my bad.
dot dot dot dash dash dash dot dot dot
Morse code S O S
you idiot
A democratic wipeout? Wipeouts in off year elections? Spinmeisters in full gale! We won 2 house seats, one that has been held by a republican for over 120 years. We lost a VA gov seat that traditionally always votes opposite of who is in the White House, no suprise there. In fact the more Deeds tried to distance himself from Obama and progressive policies the worse his numbers got. Had he ran as a progressive he was before running for govenor, he would have turned out his base. But he ran to the right and lost. NJ...even Jersey dems didnt like Corzine. Again no big suprise. The only thing that mattered as far a Congress goes was NY 23rd, a seat the dems should not even be in the running for and thanks to conservatives like Palin and Limbaugh, is now a dem seat. If a conservative runs in 2010 then it will most likely remain a dem seat. Scozzafava would have easily won this seat. She was moderate but a reliable republican vote and yet on a few social issues the conservatives ran her out, and thereby handing this seat to a dem over party purity! You might end up with a "pure party" but it aint gonna win national elections, let alone state and local. Neither govenor chairs have any powers over what the dems do in congress. In Va it was about tradition. In Jersey it was a case of "who sucks worse".....hardly bellweathers to anything. And I'll trade every dem govenorship in equal exchange for either republican senate or house seats all day long!
Bingo. Finally some sense!
"they genuinely (if nuttily) believe that large deficits and a larger welfare state are extinguishing their freedom"
this is an example of what the liberal press sees as "journalism." Put another way, Peter is an a-hole. There is nothing nutty about believing in lower tax RATES and limited government. This country was founded in the desire for more limited government, wasn't it. What a jerk......
Hmmm ?? Subframer ?? A couple of items, Provide for us where the founders called for limited government, I believe their idea was to create a free nation unoppressed by any faction especially religious ones, But I'm just one of those airhead liberals who believe that the words "For the common good " encomposed everyone not just those of a paticular mindset.
"Large deficits " ? By this you mean putting stuff on credit that has to be paid at a future time with interest ?? Enlighten us as to who the last President was that addressed this problem and their successful end ie balanced the budget.
"Larger Wefare State " ?? Again here I'm confused, Are you referring to people, families that are in financial need, or are you referring to corporate fatcats who suck up incentives and tax breaks and still feel the need to hide their monies in off shore accounts to avoid paying their fairshare, Because you see stuff has to be paid for and accountants have figured out a way for everyone to pay a determined percentage of their income so that once the bills are paid everybody has contributed fairly without being overburdened, But when those fatcats hide a portion of theirs the burden then falls on those who paid their fairshare which in turn emboldens that welfare state because you see stuff has to be paid for, And I'm guessing by your moniker that you may be into or close to that welfare state, Lets break it down, "Sub " short for subcontractor ?? "Framer " As in framing a house as in carpentry ?? With the new and second home market in the tank around most of the country it makes sense that instead of out working like you'd no doubt like to be doing you're sitting here wailing at those who are trying to help you instead of wailing at those who put you in your present situation. The GOP, Greedy Old Pricks
"they genuinely (if nuttily) believe that large deficits and a larger welfare state are extinguishing their freedom" - Are you serious, Petey? Exactly how do you think large deficits and a larger welfare state are created? BY TAKING AWAY YOUR MONEY AND HENCE YOUR FREEDOM. Good Lord, do you think the cash for clunkers fairy paid $23,000 for each old car traded in? Hard working Americans paid for that. Buy a clue. (Just don't ask me to pay for it)
Two gubernatorial races don't mean diddly. What was really a bellwether regarding the emergence of the lunatic Right happened in New York 23.
Palin, Pawlenty, Steele, et.al made no difference. The far right is scary.
Why would something that makes no difference be scary?
More to the point, you choose to emphasize a district with 100,000 voters over two states with 7 million. Cogent.
Pereiscope's assertion that 10% or more of our male population is homosexual is utter nonsense; that percentage main pertain in the circles in which periscope runs, but it certainly isn't true among mren in our armed forces, nor among WQal-Mart shoppers. Not among men who regularly hunt & fish.
Periscope whimpered about a misunderstanding of basic biology among opponents of same sex marriage, but its Periscope who ignores the basic reality that homosexuality is a biological deadend; same sex unions do not procreate our young.
Moron, your spelling is almost as bad as your syntax, not to mention your profound ignorance of biology. Aside from the fact that you're inserting different topic than the one this thread represents, homosexuality isn't a deadend, because they have been born to heterosexual parents for as long as we have recorded history and they will continue to be born to heterosexual parents. In fact, homosexual men and women have been known to procreate as well, when they deviate from their sexual preference or use the helping hand of artificial insemination.
If these facts disturb you, I suggest you buy some books or get an education.
after watching steele on morning joe i decided to mark my calendar he said the republicans that was elected last night was because they could bring jobs to their state and healthcare and bring back a strong economy so i want you to mark your calendar too and the same way some of you have been ragging on obama i want to see what you say about them and i don't want to hear what the stimulus has did i want to hear what these people have done at that time
Don't hold your breath. I think you know as well as I do or does any other rational person, Steele is full of crap. Republican claims about creating jobs or a strong economy are about as worthless as a quit-claim on land that is underwater.
I remember Mitt Romney promising the same bullshit when he ran for governor here in Mass. The result? Job losses and a state deeper in debt.
Not a terrible analysis. Well, not bad for Beinart anyway.
Never forget: this guy & his yawn-inducing magazine (which I can never remmeber the name of) endorsed Joe Leiberman for President in the 2004 Democratic primary.
Leiberman?! In 2004?!
I am not making this up...
This article highlights the far right ineptitude with economics. A market economy is circular and always has been. With their social initiatives, the far right kills that circular motion of the economy. The really brilliant earners realize this relation. A Sam Walton creates a Wal-Mart and hires low paid employees, But his store is geared to lower paid individuals. He continues to open stores and employ low paid individuals. But those same indviduals also use their employee discount to buy from him as well as others. He made his fortune catering to the masses and not centering on the fewer upscale. And understanding this circular relation made him wealthy. Economically, the far right does more to hurt these people who have needs and helped the Sam Walton types to prosperity. They keep thinking that only rich people create jobs. Sam Walton nor Bill Gates were very wealthy when they went into business. They kill the circular economic system keeping in line with the false principles that keep the wealthy in advantage and forget the ingenuity of the Sam Walton's and Bill Gates and their effects in this circular economy. The market economy will not work as a linear function..
This analysis starts okay but stumbles to a false conclusion because of the author's liberal bias. You can't properly decipher these results if you call concerns about spending, deficits and dramatic government expansion "nuts."
It's true that we can read too much into this election -- but that was also true when a nation exhausted with Pres. Bush threw its lot in with the unknown Barack Obama, and the left declared "permanent liberal realignment!" Nope. Candidate Obama rambled on about the utterly shopworn themes of hope and change (what's a challenger going to say when the other party currently holds office -- "Here's to the status quo?"), and painted his plans in vaguely centrist terms. Fervent supporters and curious independents gave him the presidency. Now he's governing as a garden variety progressive, trying frantically to jam through proposals that repel at least half of the country. And NJ and VA say at least that many independents are not permanent Democrats.
But while it's likely true that in the abstract "most American don't care all that much how large government is; they just want the economy to improve," it's also true that Americans are smart enough to recognize in broad terms the threat of runaway government spending and deficits. Japan tried deficit-spending its way out of its malaise, and its problems have gotten worse. Outside a relatively and hyper-expansive economy like China's or India's, larger government nearly always hurts economic performance. Obama is simply misguided because he's never been accountable for making a profit, producing anything, or creating a job, and there's no help for that.
Peter Beinart you need to GET REAL!!! Or is it you can't ADD - or you're having Memory Lapses???
Total Governors (States, Territories & DC):
GOP 27 / 48%
DEM 29 / 52%
Total Congressional Legislators:
GOP 175 / 40%
DEM 260 / 60% (2 were Added; NY-23/1, the First Dem. Legislator there in 140 Years & CA-10/1; Tot. 2)
Total Senatorial Legislators:
GOP 40 / 40%
DEM 58 / 58%
IND/DEM 2 / 2%
Presidential Election 2008, States Carried, Territories & DC:
GOP 22 / 42%
DEM 31 / 58%
Presidential Electoral College Votes:
GOP 173 / 32%
DEM 365 / 68%
Now ....... WHAT WAS THAT ABOUT A "DEMOCRATIC WIPEOUT???"
Journalism is rife with bad headlines.
Headlines that mislead and tempt readers. Unfortunately headlines are as far as many readers go. And headlines today bury the story to encourage readers to spend some time and get a reward with some ads thrown in to pay for the content.
The right likes to create spin, and is very good at it, they believe their own fiction. Why is Ayn Rand even spoken about today?
She was a leader in the creation of this current republican victim ideal and thinking, and a capitalist hero. Everyone likes a happy story with a victorious ending. Even better when you write the story and convince others it is true.
The Republican machine and media outposts, will not stop its promotion of self enrichment at the cost of the American worker. The party has been overthrown by religious hypocrites and has become a organization that is corrupt by its own self interests and almost Taliban like enforcement of moral
code. This is not the Republican party of its founding.
Add Peter Beinart to your list of go-to people when you need to know details about the flavor of Obama's anus.
Otherwise, he's as ignorable as other reliable Democrat lickspittles. You know what they'l say before you read, so why bother?
Thank you.
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