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Could Mumbai Happen Here?
Peter Keep / Reuters
Tomorrow marks the anniversary of the brutal terrorist attacks in India. Gerald Posner watches a mock assault on Miami—and reveals shocking security gaps.
A year ago tomorrow, millions of people worldwide began watching a terror attack play out live for three days in Mumbai. Ten gunmen staving off the police, special forces, and army troops captured world attention while slaughtering 173 people and wounding more than 300.
As the Mumbai victims are remembered this week, federal terrorism intelligence experts have quietly embarked on a campaign to help some major metropolitan police forces in the U.S. learn the lessons of Mumbai. Two weeks ago, I was the first journalist allowed to sit in on a two-hour briefing conducted by John Miller, the assistant deputy director of intelligence analysis for the Office of Director of National Intelligence, to 200 top Miami police officers, SWAT team leaders, and leaders from the fire department. The briefing, conducted at the Miami Police Department’s headquarters, was a sobering PowerPoint presentation. Miami was the third city, after Los Angeles and Boston, to get Miller’s briefing.
In the exercise set up for Miami, a Mumbai-type attack meant the first shooting was along the business district in Coconut Grove. Less than 30 minutes later, a car bomb went off in crowded Little Havana.
“Mumbai signaled a turn in terror operations,” says Miller, the former co-anchor of ABC’s 20/20, best known for his 1998 cave interview of Osama bin Laden, who has worked with the government on the terror front since 2001. “With al Qaeda being hit hard, less centralized and having more trouble raising money, Mumbai is the format for the future: low tech, low cost and high yield. It was a strategic and technical success that got them the biggest bang for the buck, creating a lot of fear while getting great media attention.”
Miller learned the details of how and why Mumbai was so successful from the interrogations of the one surviving terrorists, Ajmal Muhammad. From Muhammad, Western intelligence analysts learned how easy it was to carry out such a brutally efficient attack. The 10 gunmen—all between the ages of 20 and 28—were armed with attack rifles, hand grenades, and thousands of rounds of ammunition, several explosive devices, handheld GPS devices to find their targets, and the same Nokia cellular phones.
“What is interesting about Mumbai,” Miami Police Chief John Timoney tells The Daily Beast, “is that it’s not the biggest or the worst attack. So it’s not the first that comes to mind as a major problem for preparation.”
“It’s not until I explain what happened in Mumbai,” adds Miller, “and then run an exercise on targets in their own city, that local police see how quickly this type of attack would stretch their resources very quickly to the breaking point.”
• Tunku Varadarajan: Reliving India’s 9/11In Mumbai, the terrorists split into five groups of two each. They began their assault at a popular tourist café, and in rapid sequence carried out attacks on a Jewish center, a major train station, and two leading hotels. The terrorists carried small explosive devices the size of a shoebox, and left those in the taxis they took to their targets. When they exploded, they added to the general confusion.
Miller played video clips of the utter disorder that marked the first hours. “Put yourself in their shoes,” he said, talking about the local police. “You get a call about an active shooter situation, victims down. You have no idea if the shooters are still there or not. Fifteen minutes later, you get called about another active shooter scenario in another part of the city. You have no idea if they are connected or separate. Within an hour, you have several more shooter situations, and then several taxis explode. You don’t know if those are suicide bombers and if more are set to go off. There is normal confusion around any unfolding situation, and the first information, as you know, is always wrong.”







questionofdesire
these people are getting smarter by the minute. it's exhausting all security resources to no avail. when i think the single most important part in preventing these things from happening is for us stand up against this and educate tirelessly about the heinousness of these attacks and the beliefs that follow. plus it's really important to be on the look out, even the general population, for anything that seems out of the ordinary. in the end whoever's planning to do something wrong always gives cues.
ectoendomezo
Grim POV..sorry..
Hey..as a county boy...we grow up with..well..'Situational Awareness'...its a natural aspect to being prepared...BUT..there is a HUGE difference between 'Watching Your Back'..and watching OTHERS.
What you are suggesting is essentially...'Big Brother'..for real..cliche' as it is...your saying..'Watch Everyone..and REPORT anything that seems 'out of the ordinary'..which is impossible to determine OBJECTIVELY...or do you disagree that RACISM exists..that PROFILING exists..that OLD HATREDS are still quite ready and willing to point the finger at ANYONE "Different"?
I REFUSE to do that...and..if that becomes a 'Policy' of this Nation..I WILL..do everything I CAN..to DON THE APPEARANCE OF A THREAT..I will MAKE those of you who subscribe to the idea..of REPORTING on others..I will MAKE you report FALSE THREATS...and at the very least..i will SHOW you yor own HYPOCRISY...as I watch you simply IGNORE the 'Out Of The Ordinary' actions I'm taking...
The idea that ANYONE out there is ACTUALLY...genuinely "Concerned" about 'Security'..is a JOKE! Its B.S.! Look around..
So..we have ALL this FEAR about "Air Planes" and Airports are now..absolutely..the TRAINING GROUNDS for an authoritarian society...AND YET..the REALITY? ANYONE...can buy their OWN PLANE..What? You really believe that a group financed by Saudi's and OPIUM CANNOT...buy their OWN DC-10? Really? So..umm..all those Narco-trafficers FLYING into the U.S...umm..what? BARROW the planes? Its FAKE! It FEAR..manipulated to centralize POWER..a PERFECT example..is the simple..FACT..that "Sneak n Peek" "Warrants" are being OVERWHELMINGLY used..in...The 'War On Drugs'..garsh..who'da GUESSED that was coming? FEAR..and POWER!
The "Threat" to Liberty..IS FEAR! And the People that GO ALONG with it..almost..ENJOY it..hey..its a DISTRACTION..I understand...its such juicy DRAMA!
FREEDOM..IS..DANGEROUS AS HELL...PERIOD!
ndspinelli
Sorry ecto, I was going to reply but I don't speak crazy. I'll see if there is a Rosetta Stone program for crazy and speak w/ you @ a later date if there is.
crypto
ecto: If you had a point when you started you lost it in there somewhere. I've read it twice but Daaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaaam!!!
painter
They are the same mentality as 5 yr old toddlers , testing the territory with questionable behavior. What does a Muslim terrorist really fear ? eating pork and losing his balls. Videotape each jihadi as you force fried pork into his mouth while a sexy woman saws his nuts off with a made in America knife and post it on Americas Favorite Jihadis . Throw in sodomizing by leather clad Gay ones and i guarantee bombers and throwback shooters will think twice.
troublemonkey
And not hate us even MORE...? Your 'guarantee' is not worth the imaginary paper you imaginarily printed it on, LOL.
DakLak
Reliance on high technology is the major weakness.
If the police radio communications in any city were jammed, or disabled, the authorities would lose control.
The more sophisticated systems are far more vulnerable than simple two-way radio systems.
Jamming a single frequency on a cell system will remove the essential command channel needed to enable calls. Similarly with public order systems.
Sundays and other holidays are also good times to strike as many key people are 'off for the weekend'.
MaliciousDisorder
DUH !
Obama brought our security level back to 9-10-09.
I'm sure the plan is ready to go. They just have to figure out what elementary school or mall to attack during the Christmas shopping season.
briansays
"He reminded them of just what had transpired over this summer. In September, the FBI nabbed Najibullah Zazi and charged him with wanting to plant a bomb in New York, likely on 9/11. That same month, Michael Finton, also known as Talib Islam, was arrested for trying to blow up the federal courthouse in Springfield, Illinois. Hosam Smadi was indicted for wanting to plant a 550-pound bomb in an SUV parked at Dallas' Fountain Towers. A few months earlier, in June, Carlos Bledsoe, a.k.a. Adulkahim Muhammad, shot up a naval recruiting center in Little Rock, Arkansas, before state troopers eventually nabbed him with automatic weapons and 1,400 rounds of ammo. James Cromite, a.k.a. Abdul Rehman, a career criminal who just wanted to kill Jews and shoot down military planes, was arrested in May."
And they were all allowed extrance into the US legally by ICE?
And no evidence of extremist activitis or contacts before entry?
More likely no one bothered to check
Its a little late once they are allowed legal entry into the US
whipmawhopma
It's more like guessing as to when and where it will happen, the first time. I am predicting it will be the Mall of America. Whenever the Lost Somali Boys of Minneapolis-St. Paul come home from wherever they are. Or something like that.
Nuld001
Very sobering. It would have very interesting to have read the solutions to this, but perhaps that's off limits to the public or none are available for the time being. What can the average citizen do? Be vigilant and maintain situational awareness at all time. Change the gun laws to make it illegal for foreigners to buy guns. In the same light, serious thought should be given about whether arming ourselves for such an occurrence would be a help or a hindrance.
robjh1
Any thing can happen. The possibilities are endless. The question should be are we ready.
"and we are not saved..."
ndspinelli
Great piece. HBO has a good documentary about Mumbai. Hearing the telephone converstions between the terrorists and their commander,and seeing the captured terrorist interviewed, is chilling. I become more and more convinced that the only way to turn the tide is for good Muslims to rise up. They need to kill their brothers. These terrorists are more than happy to kill Muslims, as well as others. Fellow Muslims need to not just speak out, which to date they have only done tepidly, but to act. They know who these animals are, and they know where they live. It's time they got to work!!
In the meantime, we need to continue to reach out to moderates and try to convince them to help. But firstly we have to hunt these animals and capture or kill them. It's not any more complicated than that. We have to have defense, but offense is much more important. If they're spending all their money running, they can't attack.
painter
Good point, hunt or capture the animals. have you personally done either? THEN YOU MUST KNOW what is involved , its called killing. Like butchering a rabbit for dinner, put the head on a block [video]. chop with one stroke and pull the fur/skin to the feet and dispose of unwanted material. in the case of ball less terrorist punks , it is all disposable. take no prisoners, oh weak one, but take the family,village,town and state they live in and level it to the ground and suddenly the seriousness of your retaliatory actions will be understood by the Martyrs.
ndspinelli
Painter, Please take your meds, wait an hour, and post again. I don't have a clue what you're trying to say.
troublemonkey
You are a complete idiot with obviously no foundation in history. That kind of approach has been tried and has *never* worked out well for the self-righteous a**holes who tried it.
There really should be an IQ meter attached to the "submit" button.
finderj
It was Machiavelli who said that no one could depend on stopping a determined assassin who was trained and willing to die.
No city, no nation, no person is totally safe from these crazies who think killing someone will solve his political problems.
Of course, gun-carrying citizens might be a deterrent....
Ooopps, my bad. Law-abiding citizens carrying liscensed firearms is, of course, the total problem with terrorism/assination.
painter
Posner, get a grip! You make your living postulating and surmising. Would anything happen 'IF?". Florida, the most corrupt state in the US after The District Of Columbia .Of course any group of focused people can create massacre. Why don't you write about the proper response for once. Man up.
troublemonkey
Your post has absolutely null content.
rapierwits
Mr Posner, a few notes
1- it's an ASSAULT rifle, not an "attack rifle", you live in Florida, for god's sake, it has almost as many guns, per capita, as my beloved Lone Star State.
2- The drill you mentioned relied strictly on LOCAL law enforcement. What about the FDLA and FBI, which both have offices in Miami?
Your main points of a determined, small group willing to give their lives as an effective force do ring true. I worry that this is how law enforcement will start to see all hostage takers and dispense with negotiations....
troublemonkey
Three big things no one seems to be talking about:
1. Notice that pretty much all these terrorism attempts that were thwarted were thwarted by POLICE work, not by military action.
2. There is TOO MUCH freedom for the press to cover things like police maneuvers live, on-site... this has always been a clusterf**k waiting to happen, and now it has...
3. And finally, there has ALWAYS been a tendency for WAY TOO MANY POLICE to cluster around "interesting" events. Police are almost by definition "adrenalin junkies", and seem to have very little accountability as to what they spend their time on... Start a fistfight in a town with eight cops and all eight cops show up. (I've SEEN it.. TWICE this year alone.) Do you NEED eight cops for a fistfight? No. But given their addiction to 'action', none of the cops wants to be left out. And there's no one telling them to pay attention to their JOBS and not what they WANT to do, because they have too much latitude with things like the unconstitutional 'disorderly conduct' statutes (WIDELY acknowledged to be unconstitutionally broad and vague.). (As a side note... look at the godawful places cop cars pull people over for MINOR infractions, bottlenecking traffic, etc., creating MAJOR hazards in traffic... a similar "I'll do what I want because I have a badge" mentality.) It's a matter of a nearly-military skill set becoming more and more necessary in a profession that does not receive the of disciplined training a military unit undergoes. It's a long-standing cop characteristic that, for instance, if a cop is shot, they ALL go to the hospital or the scene, TOTALLY NEGLECTING their obligation to be keeping the public safe elsewhere. Or like "the Blue Line", where you don't "rat" on your fellow cops... FOR BREAKING THE LAW! They TOO OFTEN consider themselves above it, as a class. And that 'action-seeking', 'clustering' characteristic, left uncorrected by the command structure, really operates in favor of the subjects of this article. Cops: quit being self-indulgent, thrill-seeking a**holes and CONCENTRATE ON YOUR JOBS... and this kind of "response-baiting" would be less of a problem.
KarenF444
We've probably already spent a trillion with no end in sight for the overseas response to fear of terrorism. Honestly, I don't think we're safer and even wonder who we are fighting and why. The Mumbai attacks were plotted in Pakistan and India-Pakistan has a history of violence. There is a historic, longstanding political component there that isn't comparable here. "What if a Mumbai-style attack happens in Miami?" is fearmongering and won't prevent the next Virginia-Tech style horror.
periscope
The Mumbai massacre last year was a combination of so many evils, that prevail far too much throughout the world.
First of all it was ignorance. As the young terrorists in many cases couldn't read and had little knowledge of the world. Next it was blind hatred as they slaughtered indiscriminately. Then there was the religious fanaticism that spurred their suicidal assault, and last but not least, there were the depraved, power-hungry "leaders" who sent these young men on their suicide missions, to kill and be killed.
How do you stop this kind of thing from occurring? You probably can't, but if more people were educated, and more religious leaders denounced violence and condemned those who would use it to further their own power, and if police infiltration of these groups were more feasible, we might mitigate, but never eliminate this from occurring.
But there is no reason to think America is immune to the same kind of attack. I only hope all the money we've spent on Homeland Security doesn't go to waste, with serious suspects like Hasan being known to one U.S.law enforcement agency, which neglects to inform other agencies to take preventative action.
crypto
Reading all the comments I can't help but wonder if the couple who "crashed" Obama's dinner party had been Hasan's or any other terrorist, would the dumbass, do right, political correctness, people have a change of heart????
Thank you.
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