STRAIT-UP MESS

Leak Reveals Major Problem With Trump’s Post-Election Plot

The president could undo vital progress the U.S. has achieved during a deeply unpopular conflict.

President Donald Trump’s hopes of relaunching attacks against Iran following the midterms could scupper progress being made around the Strait of Hormuz, according to a report.

While the deeply unpopular conflict in the Middle East has dragged on for more than eight months with no end in sight, the U.S. has had more success in getting oil and ships through the vital shipping route, with traffic approaching levels seen before the war broke out.

However, sources have told The Washington Post that there are concerns about whether these gains can be sustained if Trump follows through with plans to launch a fresh wave of airstrikes against Iran in the aftermath of Tuesday’s crucial elections.

Questions have also been raised about whether the U.S. will continue its secretive military operations around the Strait of Hormuz while resuming fighting with Iran through a short but intense round of military action.

Iran’s closure of the Strait of Hormuz—through which one-fifth of the world’s oil supply would normally pass—amid Trump’s war triggered a global oil crisis and sent gas prices soaring in the U.S.

It has been widely reported that Trump is considering launching attacks against Iran after the midterms, partly because he believes military action is the only way to resolve the issues surrounding the strait.

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In a Sunday statement, U.S. Central Command (CENTCOM) claimed that military operations in the region had resulted in more than 95 percent of ships successfully navigating the Strait of Hormuz, despite Iran’s “unwarranted aggression” against vessels attempting to pass through the narrow waterway.

CENTCOM claims that more than 3,000 commercial vessels have successfully transited the Strait of Hormuz over the past six months. Sources also told the Post that around 30 ships per day have transited the strait so far this month.

Daily oil exports have also improved, reaching 14 million barrels in the week ending October 18, about 80 percent of prewar levels, according to military analytics firm Kpler.

Despite this progress, the situation in the strait remains dangerous. At least 25 ships have been hit in the waterway this month, according to data collected by the U.K. Maritime Trade Operations center, making October the month with the most attacks on vessels since the war broke out on February 28.

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The risk of sailing through the strait remains so high that most ships attempting the passage are state-owned and operated. Most private companies still refuse to use the waterway, even under U.S. protection, sources told the Post.

“The situation is completely unsustainable,” an official based in the region said, adding that few vessels carrying liquefied natural gas had been willing to take the risk. “If one of those gets hit, it’s not just an oil spill; it’s an explosion.”

The Daily Beast has contacted the White House and the Pentagon for comment.

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