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Odds of Disaster for Trump Surge to All-Time High on Election Day

Prediction markets linked to the president’s eldest son give the Democrats record-high odds of seizing control of Congress.

Donald Trump is staring a midterm nightmare in the face as two prediction markets linked to his eldest son have recorded their highest odds yet of a Democratic wipeout.

The 80-year-old president entered Tuesday’s midterms with Republican majorities in the House and Senate on the line. Now, on Election Day, major bookmakers are predicting he will lose both chambers of Congress.

At the time of publication, Polymarket put the prospect of a Democratic sweep at 76 percent, while Kalshi had it at 75 percent.

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Both figures were the highest points on the platforms’ displayed historical charts. Each put the chance of Republicans retaining both chambers at around 6 percent.

Last Friday, the respective figures stood at 68 percent on Kalshi and 70 percent on Polymarket—7 and 6 percentage points below Tuesday’s levels.

Trump’s son, Donald Trump Jr., is a paid strategic adviser to Kalshi and also sits on Polymarket’s advisory board, and his past words may now be coming back to haunt him.

He praised Polymarket for allowing people to “bet on what they actually believe will happen in the world,” in a statement announcing his appointment to its board.

Odds on the two markets reflect people trading contracts on election outcomes. Kalshi displayed more than $106 million in trading volume across its congressional balance-of-power market. Polymarket showed more than $61 million had been spent predicting the midterms outcome.

The rising odds of a Democratic victory reflect dire polling for the president. A Reuters/Ipsos survey published Monday found Trump’s approval at just 32 percent, while registered voters preferred Democratic congressional candidates over Republicans by 46 percent to 38 percent.

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Democrats need to gain three seats to take the House and four to capture the Senate. Winning both would allow them greater power to investigate the Trump administration and stymie his legislative agenda for the last two years of his second and final term as president.

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Trump Jr. joined Kalshi in January 2025. In August that year, the venture-capital firm 1789 Capital, where he is a partner, invested in rival Polymarket as he joined its advisory board.

The Daily Beast has contacted the Republican National Committee for comment.

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