The Supreme Court killed Defense of Marriage Act on Wednesday, a huge victory for gay-rights advocates. But, with gay marriage legal in only 13 states, there are many more political and legal battles to be fought in the coming years.
To find the states where same-sex marriage is most likely to be passed, and rank them accordingly, The Daily Beast first considered the most recent state-by-state polling data. But as the mechanisms of change will be in the hands of state legislatures and courts, we also weighed the political and legal challenges that are at play.
For each state, we examined what types of legislation (if any) have been introduced or voted on, as well as whether the governor or majority of the legislature supports gay marriage. We also considered how difficult it may be to ratify gay marriage. In Virginia, for example, where 56 percent of the population supports gay marriage, the process to overturn the state’s constitutional ban on gay marriage is complicated and unlikely to happen in the immediate future. But, in Ohio, a ballot initiative in 2016 would be enough.
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Very good
Population in support of gay marriage: 50%
Legislative support: Yes
Governor support: Yes
State law: Legal civil unions or domestic partnerships; equality banned
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: No
Current status: Marriage equality bill passed in the Senate in February but is still awaiting action in the House; it could be voted on as soon as July. Proximity to Minnesota and Iowa, which both have gay marriage, could influence.
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Very good
Population in support of gay marriage: 55%
Legislative support: Yes
Governor support: Yes
State law: Legal civil unions or domestic partnerships; equality banned
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: Not explicitly—the constitution gives legislature power to ban same-sex marriage.
Expert Opinion: “The legislature has the option of going back into a special session right now and changing the law so that gay people can get married right away. The leaders of the House and Senate now have never been supporters of gay marriage, but the majority of the Democratic caucuses are filled with people who support it.”—Richard Borreca, political columnist, Honolulu Star-Advertiser
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Good
Population in support of gay marriage: 64%
Legislative support: Yes
Governor support: No
State law: Legal civil unions or domestic partnerships
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: No
Current status: In order to pass a legislative gay marriage agenda, and override Gov Chris Christie’s veto of a 2012 gay marriage bill, the state needs support of two thirds of the legislature.
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Good
Population in support of gay marriage: 44%
Legislative support: No
Governor support: No
State law: Legal civil unions or domestic partnerships
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: No; language of constitution is entirely gender-neutral.
Current status: Two pending lawsuits, one from the ACLU, argue that denying same-sex marriages violates the state constitution. Strong religious influence has made legislative progress difficult.
Expert Opinion: “We’re confident we have a friendly court in place right now at the state supreme court … There are major eyes on New Mexico right now; it’s a majority-minority state—that’s huge—and we kind of sit in a conservative donut hole, so we have major national partners.”—Amber Royster, executive director, Equality New Mexico
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Good
Population in support of gay marriage: 54%
Legislative support: Yes
Governor support: No
State law: Legal civil unions or domestic partnerships
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: Yes
Current status: The legislature passed a bill this spring to repeal the current constitutional amendment banning gay marriage, replacing it with an amendment that legalizes gay marriage. It has to be approved by the 2015 legislature and a 2016 popular ballot vote.
Expert Opinion: “The Senate is 11-to-10 Democrats to Republicans, so depending on who’s elected in 2014, [the current gay marriage] bill could die. We’ve really got our work cut out for us in 2014.”—Bob Fulkerson, state director, Progressive Leadership Alliance of Nevada
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Good
Population in support of gay marriage: 54%
Legislative support: Yes
Governor support: Yes
State law: Legal civil unions or domestic partnerships
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: Yes
Current status: Potential 2014 ballot initiative; some couples from Oregon have married in neighboring Washington.
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Good to Fair
Population in support of gay marriage: 57%
Legislative support: No
Governor support: Neutral (Governor has said he will support if voters do.)
State law: Banned
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: Yes
Current status: A statewide ballot initiative to overturn the constitutional ban is slated for 2016. Democrats also introduced a bill this week that includes a joint resolution to overturn the ban, but the legislature would then have to legalize gay marriage. A federal judge is expected to rule in favor of a lesbian couple who contend the ban is unconstitutional by late summer.
Expert Opinion: “When [the constitutional gay marriage ban] passed in 2004, 59% of voters voted in favor of traditional marriage at that time. A lot of experts say that to have a strong likelihood of passing, a ballot initiative to overturn the ban should be north of 60%. The 57% in favor [of gay marriage] may not be such a slam dunk.”—Paul Egan, reporter, Detroit Free Press
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Fair
Population in support of gay marriage: 51%
Legislative support: Yes
Governor support: No
State law: Legal civil unions or domestic partnerships; equality banned
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: Yes
Expert Opinion: “We have a long and very significant campaign ahead of us, because amending the constitution is no small thing … What is changing public opinion is more and more people coming out and the sharing of their stories. [Gay Speaker of the House Mark] Ferrandino and his family—he and his partner and their foster kid—really demonstrate very publicly what this issue is all about.”—Brad Clark, executive director, One Colorado
Likelihood of legal same-sex marriage: Fair
Population in support of gay marriage: 48%
Legislative support: No
Governor support: No
State law: Equality banned
Same-sex marriage constitutional ban: Yes
Current status: Advocates within the state disagree on whether November 2014 is too soon for a ballot initiative to reverse the constitutional ban (which does not need approval of the legislature); Equality Ohio representatives have said they shouldn’t rush but should wait until approval remains more consistently above 50 percent.
