In the wake of Russia’s brutal invasion of Ukraine, there’s a question worth asking: If Donald Trump gets re-elected in 2024, is NATO toast?
It is axiomatic that free countries have a harder time guaranteeing long-term commitments, but Trump is incomparable as a wild card. What is more, the possibility that Trump will be re-elected isn’t implausible. There’s a general consensus that the Republican nomination is his for the taking.
President Joe Biden is currently enjoying a post-State of the Union bounce, but his approval numbers are still underwater. His party is well-positioned to get absolutely trounced in the midterms. And if we haven’t already learned that anything can happen from the 2016 election—as well as Trump’s failed coup attempt in 2020—then we never will learn.
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During his presidency, Trump harshly criticized our allies, while lavishing praise on dictators like North Korea’s Kim Jong Un. “I have NATO, I have the UK, which is somewhat in turmoil, and I have Putin. I think Putin may be the easiest of them all, who would think!” he said.
Trump also undermined the U.S. intelligence community, most infamously in Helsinki, when he sided with Russia over the FBI. During a 2019 NATO summit, Canadian Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, French President Emmanuel Macron and U.K. Prime Minister Boris Johnson were caught on camera mocking Trump.
These are just a few of the many examples of how in four short years, Trump buddied up to dictators while simultaneously straining America’s relationship with our allies.
It could have been even worse. Former National Security Adviser John Bolton’s memoir says that he had to talk Trump out of quitting NATO in 2018. “In a second Trump term, I think he may well have withdrawn from NATO,” Bolton said recently. “And I think Putin was waiting for that.”
Carol Leonnig and Phil Rucker, authors of the book I Alone Can Fix It: Donald J. Trump’s Catastrophic Final Year, buttressed this belief; they reported that some of Trump’s advisers warned of the political fallout that could come from leaving NATO in his first term.
“We’ll do it in the second term,” Trump reportedly decided.
Trump may still get that second term. Then the question could shift from “What happens to non-NATO states like Ukraine and Taiwan” to “What happens to the Baltic states? What happens to Poland?”
What I am saying is that America’s ability to maintain the trust of our allies and preserve NATO’s principle of collective defense is incredibly tenuous. Regardless of the messages of deterrence that the West is now sending Russia (and China), it could all be upset by an incoming president with little regard to preserving past systems.
In a mere two-and-a-half years, we may (re-)elect a leader of the Free World who is hostile to the idea of preserving the post-World War II rules-based international system and the institutions and alliances that have supported it for more than 70 years. If that happens, a lot of the hard work and sacrifice that is taking place right now—by Ukraine and, to a far lesser extent, the West—could be in vain.
Of course, it could be that Russia’s cold-blooded invasion has finally done what Trump’s past comments about John McCain, the Access Hollywood tape, and a zillion other third rails could not do. National Journal’s Josh Kraushaar thinks Trump’s Putin praise, coupled with his lack of moral clarity about the invasion, “may prove to be his kryptonite.” During a recent conversation, Kraushaar told me, “I think this is a tipping point moment where the Republican Party may be returning more to its Reaganite roots…”
Time will tell, but there is little doubt that Trumpian populism has been dealt a blow. In North Carolina’s May 17 primary, a Republican candidate is already using the pro-Putin comments of a Trump-endorsed candidate against him.
But there’s also a chance that Trump could win the 2024 election at the same time that already-hawkish Republicans (think Sens. Lindsey Graham, Marco Rubio, Tom Cotton, et al.) become simultaneously more anti-Russia. The assumption has always been that a second term for Trump would be one where he was more liberated from establishment advisers and “deep state” interference. But it’s at least conceivable that, when it comes to Russia and NATO, Trump would trim his sails.
Sure, this transformation is possible. But I wouldn’t want to bet the future of the free world on it. Who would believe that Trump could be fenced in by Republican senators who care more about the country’s interests than they do about not offending the rabid Trumpist base, much less that he learned his lesson and has grown into the role of president?
So long as the potential for a President Trump Part 2 looms on the horizon, our friends and allies will have to look over their shoulders, and our enemies will have good reason to believe they can bide their time.
That’s no way to run a railroad, let alone the Free World.
