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The Pessimists' Party
Republicans know the race is over. Only Democrats, so accustomed to failure, still believe Obama could lose.
Wondering if you're really a Democrat? Here's a quick way to find out: Given everything the Democratic party has going for it this year—the overwhelming financial advantage, the legions of new voters, George W. Bush—do you believe the Obama campaign could still somehow, in the final moments, find a way to blow it and lose this election?
If you answered yes, you're a Democrat.
Two weeks out, only the Democrats in Washington think Obama might not win. That's not the result of a scientific study, but instead the conclusion I've reached after many lunches, dinners and elevator rides with DC Democrats. Against all evidence, a good number of them have convinced themselves that John McCain is going to be the next president.
Republicans have no master plan for victory, no October Surprise. You'll never convince most Democrats of that.
Partly this is superstition, like throwing salt over your shoulder when you spill the shaker: predictions are bad luck. But it's also the voice of experience.
"We're the Cincinnati Bengals," says Jay Rouse, a longtime Democratic political consultant. "Democrats are used to losing, not winning." That's especially true at the national level, where in the past 64 years only a single Democrat has been reelected president. The last two presidential elections raised doubts about whether Democrats were capable of wining at all. "People are still traumatized by '04," says James Carville.
They shouldn't be. A mediocre candidate running against an incumbent in a time of war isn't likely to win under any circumstances; if anything, Democratic insiders were too quick to blame John Kerry for his loss. Circumstances all but doomed him from the beginning. The problem was, up until about dinner time on election night, few of Kerry's supporters realized that.
The shock stings four years later. "Democrats are losers," says one former Democratic campaign operative with sadness. "Don't underestimate the capacity of Democrats to snatch defeat from the jaws of victory," Obama himself told supporters last week. "Don't underestimate our ability to screw things up."
Give them a few drinks and many Democrats make remarkably self-loathing noises: we're disorganized, our interest groups are out of control, the rest of the country hates us. To these Democrats, Obama isn't really winning; the Republicans are losing. They fear fate could intervene at the last minute to change the course of the election.
It's the nightmare scenario, says Jay Rouse. "They're worried that Osama bin Laden is going to say, 'I want to have sex with Barack Obama.'"
If that happens, Karl Rove will get all the credit, at least in Democratic circles. Rove’s too busy giving speeches and doing TV to pick up his dry cleaning, yet Democrats imagine he's having breakfast with Satan every Thursday at the Four Seasons to chart strategy.
No one's more confident in Republican efficiency than Democrats. It's almost touching, and totally unwarranted. In real life, there are no WMD: Republicans have no master plan for victory, no October Surprise. The operation is as disjointed as it looks. You'll never convince most Democrats of that.
Even those Democrats who understand the true, greatly weakened state of the Republican Party have grave doubts about ordinary voters. If you've been out to dinner in a blue state in the last six weeks, you've heard the argument: This is still a racist country. Once they get in the booth, they'll never vote for a black man. It's the Bradley Effect, etc...In other words, it only looks like 2008. Actually, it's 1956.
Except that it's not. If anything, Obama’s race has been a net political asset so far. We'll find out for sure on Election Day, but in the meantime I'd be willing to bet that Obama wins a larger proportion of white men than John Kerry did four years ago. It's a different country than it used to be.
The question is whether, even in victory, Democrats will come to understand that. In order to govern successfully, they'll need to.
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Paul Schrodt is a writer living in New York City. He has contributed to New York magazine, Radar, and Esquire.com.
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withapassion
Tucker, I've previously called you out for writing I thought was below this site. Today you've contributed something of merit to the conversation, and while my thanks for this may not be high in your list of things to care about today, I gotta hand it to you, this was a good post. Keep it up.
bourbongal78
Very nice, very nice.
mrichards
Wow, you nailed this on the head. I'm a college student and even among my youthful, ostensibly optimistic peers, those who support Obama (myself included) are terrified and half-convinced something is terrible will happen to Obama or his campaign in the next few weeks. I suspect that Democrats tend to have less self-confidence in every arena, not just politics.
S0UTHPAW
Oh yeah? You just wait, Tucker. When Big John pulls up to the Newseum on Sunday morning, November 2 in an open-topped humvee with Sarahnator standing in back hanging on to the 50 cal. with one hand and Osama bin Laden over the other shoulder, heaves him down and screams up at the Georges, "Whaddya think of THIS!?!" we'll just see about that...
lucymalone
Thanks Tucker, I used to be a republican.....exceedingly confident and optimistic and now I understand what the uneasy feeling in my stomach has been since I put the Obama/Biden signs in my front lawn. The feeling the grew as I put the 'got hope" bumper sticker on my car............I have become a democrat. I am so happy and relieved that I have come full circle and now can join the ranks of those that believe in a better world but can't help our uneasy feeling that perhaps the multinationals will win this on from us. Thanks for the diagnosis Tucker!
quick2no
The fear of Sara Palin as a sitting President of these United States leaves me trembling...why wouldn't a this registered indepdent be sweating fearfully in these last days before the election?
MicheleT
As a democrat, I couldn't have said it better. I admit what you wrote is all true, but I'm still not counting my chickens before they hatch.
BatGuano
In fact, the thing that most Dems I talk to fear is Republican chicanery at the polling place and in the courts as in 2000 and 2004.
KingOzymandias
I think you got this one wrong, Tucker. Being from Chicago, a Democrat, and a Cubs fan, I think the Democrats are like the Cubs. Even when it looks like there is no way we can lose, I feel that we're going to do something to find a way to blow it.
phantastek
Sarah Palin in the White House scares the HELL out of me.
Not the reason I am voting for Obama but it sure as heck makes for a good one. What was McCain thinking??
BigBlueFrog
I guess it comes from living in a decidedly red state-Alabama-that has me nervous about this election. True, our state is not a "battleground," but there's a sentiment on the surface here which I think may be present but hidden in other states. I hope for our sakes, you're right. As a former Republican and current Obama-supporting Libertarian, I can also hope that America lives up to our expectations. I'm counting on those Bradley-effect votes to be canceled out by people voting for Obama despite their public support of McCain. People are calling it the "reverse Bradley-effect."
jgayla
I'm a democrat. I do not lack confidence in the people I choose to vote for or the party itself. I lack confidence in the integrity of the voting system. It seems that there's been a lot of tampering in the past 8 years with machines, disenfranchisement with certain types of voters, gerrymandering, etc. That's what scares me the most. I don't want the election to be stolen.
popvoid
By your logic, Dick Morris at newmax.com is a Democrat. I think KingOzymandias has it right: If you think Obama can still lose, you're probably a Cubs fan.
Avocado876
TC: I wonder if you overestimate the number of Republicans who think an Obama win is a certainty.
Whatever: I admire your ability to whip yourself up into a frenzy of disdain for us Democrats regardless of circumstances; I'm nearly certain that if Dems at this point in the race thought Obama had things locked up, we'd be reading, instead of this column, one about how those silly Democrats are measuring drapes prematurely.
It ain't over til it's over, Tucker.
Dewey didn't defeat Truman.
Anyone who thinks they know if there's a Bradley effect at work here, doesn't. That's the nature of the Bradley effect.
And as for October surprises, McCain may not have one up his sleeve, but a lot can happen in two weeks.
In other words: It. Ain't. Over. Til. It's. Over.
deanpaul1
Perhaps the illegal activities in Florida run by the Repubs in 2000 or the occupation of Iraq (pushed down our throat with false intelligence and rampant fear mongering) have something to do with the Democrats worrying about an October surprise. We know how arrogant and corrupt the right wing really is - and we know how badly Senator McCain wants to win! He's lost his integrity; why not win an election?
We also know that instead of talking about issues, fledging writers like Tucker would rather play distraction politics and whine about the Democrats. Country first, Tucker..remember?
Thank you.
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