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Dear Mr. President, Have the Guts to Be an Optimist
Gerald Herbert / AP Photo
As Obama prepares for his first major speech next week, he should take a page from FDR, Reagan, and his own campaign instead of constantly trying to manage expectations. It sure isn’t helping the stock market.
OK, Mr. President, enough with the doomsday talk already. We get it. Things suck. And they’re going to get worse before they get better.
And we get how it important it was for you to level-set expectations out of the gate, as they were stratospherically out of whack.
We are all in economic rehab now, clear eyed and sober. If we’re not out of work, we know friends and family who are. And those of us lucky enough to have jobs are being showered with resumes. Really good ones.
You were elected because you are a walking, talking hope machine. Plug that sucker back in and crank it up to ten.
So now we want to know that there is light at the end of this bleak, black tunnel.
It’s time for less mope and more hope. You were elected because you are a walking, talking hope machine. Plug that sucker back in and crank it up to ten.
There has been some debate in the opinion pages about whether the FDR or Ronald Reagan approach to a bad economy is the best remedy. Putting that aside, there is one thing they had in common: They were unblushing optimists. And they communicated their enthusiasm until their half-full cups ranneth over.
It’s time to cut the talk about similarities to the Great Depression. First, it sure as hell doesn’t help the markets. Second, it’s not true. Not yet anyway.
Bradley Schiller, an economics professor at the University of Nevada, straightens out the facts for us: “This fearmongering may be good politics, but it is bad history and bad economics. It is bad history because our current economic woes don’t come close to those of the 1930s. At worst, a comparison to the 1981-82 recession might be appropriate, Consider the job losses that Mr. Obama cites. In the last year, the U.S. economy shed 3.4 million jobs. That’s a grim statistic for sure, but represents just 2.2 percent of the labor force. From November 1981 to October 1982, 2.4 million jobs were lost—fewer in number than today, but the labor force was smaller. So 1981-82 losses totaled 2.2 percent of the labor force, the same as now.
“Job losses in the Great Depression were on an entirely different magnitude…Jobs were being lost at double or triple the rate of 2008-09 or 1981-82.
“This was reflected in the unemployment rates. The latest survey pegs U.S. unemployment at 7.6 percent. That’s more than three percentage points below the 1982 peak (10.8 percent) and not even of the a third of the peak in 1932 (25.2 percent). You simply can’t equate 7.6 percent unemployment with the Great Depression."
Auto production last year declined by roughly 25 percent. That looks good compared to 1932, when production shriveled by 90 percent. The failure of a couple of dozen banks in 2008 just doesn't compare to 10,000 bank failures in 1933. Stockholders can take some solace form the fact that the recent stock market debacle doesn't come close to the 90 percent devaluation of the early 1930s.
There now, don't you feel better.
George W. Bush was president through some of the darkest days of our history and yet his optimism never waned. He is optimistic by nature, but he also understood the importance of always communicating a sense that things will get better. And it’s in part why John Kerry lost in 2004. He painted a terrible picture of the future. And as Bush said, “You can’t say things are going to be awful, follow me and expect to turn around and see a crowd.”
So, Mr. President, you’ve got a big speech coming up. Turn the heat up and the lights back on.
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, causes, and individuals, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today’s rich internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
How Rich People Smoke Pot
Paul Schrodt is a writer living in New York City. He has contributed to New York magazine, Radar, and Esquire.com.
Justice Clinton?
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Justice Clinton?
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Myra Adams is a media producer, writer and political observer. Her media clients have included national associations, political interest groups and corporations. She was on the creative team with Mark McKinnon that created the now infamous John Kerry "Windsurfing" ad for the Bush 2004 presidential campaign and served on the McCain Ad Council during the 2008 McCain campaign. Myra's web site www.TheJesusStore.com contributes all profits to Christian charity.
Grill Him Again!
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
Not a Game-Changer
As vice chairman of Public Strategies and president of Maverick Media, Mark McKinnon has helped meet strategic challenges for candidates, corporations and causes, including George W. Bush, John McCain, Governor Ann Richards, Charlie Wilson, Lance Armstrong, and Bono. McKinnon is co-chair of Arts & Labs, a collaboration between technology and creative communities that have embraced today's rich Internet environment to deliver innovative and creative digital products to consumers.
kated04
Amen. We know the incredible psychological component to all this -- how about a hope stimulus instead of more bad news?
TavernWench
Uhh.... Mark? I'm not really sure I'd counsel President Obama to take any political cues or advice from his most immediate predecessor.
MarineLtCol
Mr. McKinnon - Give it up. When the Beast posted the article about Obama's first press conference, I suggested that he needed to learn the basic leadership principle (that any Marine would know) that you establish a realistic assessment of the situation and then get your "troops" fired up to overcome any obstacle in order to accomplish the mission. You know, optimism, positive reinforcement, a "can do" attitude, confidence in your success, etc. etc. I was lambasted by every euphoric Obama supporter on the board as they actually tried to say that he is the most brilliant leader in history because he "tells it like it is" and isn't a "cheerleader". The problem is, basic leadership principles dictate that you follow up your gloomy outlook with the "ok, here is how we are going to defeat this problem, and it's going to work!"
This is the problem with choosing our leaders from the realm of academia or the legal world (both conservative and liberal). Yes, they may speak well and be smart, but they have to learn how to actually lead people. Talk about a poor venue for on-the-job leadership training.
Sahas24
Amen, Mark McKinnon! I've wanted to say the very same thing. I don't think I've ever seen a President take such an about face--so quickly--from his campaign rhetoric. What ever happened to Obama's "audacity of hope?" If the "change" is really something "you can believe in," why the unrelenting doom and gloom?
Megson
You had me until you mentioned George W. Bush and his optimism! GAD what a bad thing to say. I never thought Bush as optimistic, just clueless!!!!!
carouzer
Mark, your assessment of the need for optimism and "here's how we're going to overcome our current plight" is right on the mark.
Obama's point that he inherited this mess, that the Republicans are generally clueless and that it isn's going to turn around overnight has been received loud and clear. The media, which seldom looks beyond the spin that is plunked into their incoming email boxes, are like dogs chasing their tails--deliverying the same superficial, negative reports day after day. What ever happened to reporters who actually tried to understand what they covered and present more than one dimension in their stories? The talking heads on cable news networks are the worst.
Obama's recovery plan won't work if people don't believe it will. Conversely, it will work more quickly if people aren't so frozen with fear--afraid to buy anything, go anywhere or make any change in their lives because "something bad" happening.
Obama has the rhetorial skills and intelligence to understand that and to galvanize people into believing things will get better--and clearly many, if not most, don't believe that now. If he doesn't begin to change the tone, he may well follow in the footsteps of one-term President Jimmy Carter who droaned on about gloom and doom, turned the White House lights and fountains off--and got turned out when he ran for re-election.
Although I believe your assessment of Obama is on the mark, I think your assessment of Dubya is not so accurate. Dubya's "optimism" was not strategic, nor was it the inherent result of his naturally upbeat personality. It arose from a neurotic mix of not taking responsibility for anything that went wrong--ever, not being smart enough to know how to fix things when the did go wrong, being too bull-headed to listen to people who might have helped and just generally living in an infallible "I'm the Decider in Chief" fairyland. Dubya's a classic example of someone who loves authority and loathes responsiblity.
JaneeS
Mr. McKinnon:
GET OVER IT.
I can't help but get frustrated every time I read articles like this. For whatever reason, you decided to leave the McCaign campaign. President Obama is no diferent than any other politician. Anyone who believed the Hope and Change hype is now getting a rude awakening. None of this is a surprise. People should have paid closer attention to what President Obama was saying during his campaign. (In fact, I sometimes feel as if he is still campaigning). None of this should be a surprise to you. Expect to hear more blame and doom and gloom for the next four years. If President Obama fails- he will blame it on the fact that he inhereted a terrible mess from the Bush administration. If he succeeds, he will let everyone know that he is responsible for cleaning up the terrible mess left by the Bush administration.
This is what America asked for- now America should deal with it.
Ritarita
Is the reader supposed to take this seriously? Really? If we didn't witness the same election in 2004, I don't see why we should agree on the pinheaded notion that President Obama is
too gloomy. DAILY BEAST - IS THIS ALL YOU'VE GOT?
Margot62
In yesterday's speech, Obama said the word "crisis" 32 times in a ten minute period. Fox News was more than happy to point that out, along with a counter for every time he said it.
The comment above, "The stimulus package won't work unless we believe it will," and the idea that Americans better get out there and spend some money!! was ludicrious.
First of all, the stimulus package will work if it was designed to work properly. That's like saying a faulty car's engine will rev if only we hope it will! And secondly, I can't afford to go out and spend money, whether or not you think it is my patriotic duty. With three kids in college, I'm afraid, that like Jimmy Carter, I've turned the lights off at my house and stopped the fountain from flowing.
SayNO2O
You have to love this country in order to be optimistic about it. Its all about hate and envy for the Obama's. Michelle is the Rage and Big O is the rhetoric. Dear God; Please help the US of A.
writerforhire
Maybe Obama just got the real numbers and the rose colored glasses he passed out to the public during campaign season expired and he like all his followers are seeing the garment of truth and it is threadbare.
sickofignorance
waaa . . .
warreno
"George W. Bush was president through some of the darkest days of our history and yet his optimism never waned."
That's because he was profoundly stupid and entirely out of touch. He had no idea how much we loathed him, and no sense of personal responsibility at all for the debacles he perpetrated.
Don't mistake rank incerebration for optimism.
Servius
Throughout the campaign Obama used the word 'Hope' like I use garlic when I'm cooking but I never found his speeches very hopeful. He was essentially saying that our best days are behind us.
I still believe our best days are ahead of us, but only if we get government under control. Things like this stimulus package won't help matters. You cannot stimulate the economy by taking money from the economy to put back in the economy. We'll just wind up back where we started with a huge pile of debt besides.
Government needs to cut spending, and I mean really cut it. Target 15% of GDP (government currently is pushing 30% and I don't know where Porkulus will take us). Begin paying down the debt. Take away the ability of banks to loan money into existence, remove the Federal Reserve's ability to manipulate interest and create a stable money supply instead of one that is prone to these booms and busts.
Margot62
Seriously folks.
You liberals used to hate America because George Bush stole the election and became President for 8 years.
I thought once your man was in office, you'd settle down a bit. But no. You hate America more than ever. Now your wrath centers on the fact that Republicans exist at ALL in our democratic system.
*Sigh* It all gets so tiring after awhile.
Thank you.
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