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Obama's Wrong About Iraq
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Today, the president announced he would pull all combat troops out of Iraq by August 2010. Thomas Ricks, author of an acclaimed new book about the war, thinks that’s a pipe dream and that Obama is suffering a case of Bush-like optimism.
President Obama told troops at Camp Lejeune today that the United States will remove all combat troops from Iraq by August 2010 and take away the remaining 35,000 to 50,000 troops by the end of 2011. Thomas Ricks, author of two of the most acclaimed books ever written about the war, Fiasco: The American Military Adventure in Iraq and The Gamble: General David Petraeus and the American Military Adventure in Iraq, 2006-2008, talked to the Daily Beast's Benjamin Sarlin about why Obama's new strategy is a Bush-like recipe for failure.
"Basically the surge failed. It was intended to improve security and lead to a breathing space where political breakthroughs could occur. None occurred."
Q: President Obama announced a 19-month withdrawal today that would leave some residual force behind until withdrawing completely under the Status of Forces Agreement's deadline at the end of 2011. What do you think of this new approach?
That it's not going to happen. I think the speech had a lot of Bush-like optimism in it. I think he's walking in the failed footsteps of his predecessor when he says we'll get down to 30,000 troops quickly. Bush's original plan was to get to 30,000 by September 2003, so what you have is Obama saying he can do that too by August 2010. The other thing that struck me was that he was talking about transitioning to Iraqi Security Forces, what Bush called "standing down as they stand up." I found it overly optimistic and a bit worrisome because of that.
Q: You mentioned how Obama has similarities to Bush in terms of optimism, but one of the chief criticisms in your book was how Bush ignored advice from his generals when they didn't have good news about the current strategy. Is this more of a potential concern with Obama or are you hearing from the military community that Obama is shutting them out in similar same ways?
No, I think Obama is listening to the military. Partly because this plan for this post-occupation force, down to 35,000 or 50,000, that's something the military has been talking about for over a year. It's right at the end of my book, reported in Baghdad last summer. I wouldn't pay too much attention to the Status of Forces Agreement. That was a bit of window dressing drawn to give [Iraqi Prime Minister] Maliki cover in Iraqi politics because it was necessary to take the divisive issue of the American forces off the table. It can always be renegotiated. I think we're there for many years to come—Gen. Odierno says he'd like to see 30,000 troops there in maybe 2015, well into Obama's second term, and I think that's probably a pretty accurate view.
Q: One issue you've raised is that a lot of the political issues the surge was intended to create space to resolve have yet to go away—things like the Kurdish issue and how to share now-dwindling oil revenue. The other day, Michael O'Hanlon and Kenneth Pollack had a piece also warning about the political situation in Iraq still being unresolved. Can we withdraw while these lingering issues hang over us and leave the Iraqis to take care of them alone?
[The political problems] kind of keep us there. Basically the surge failed. It was intended to improve security and lead to a breathing space where political breakthroughs could occur. None occurred. None of the basic questions facing Iraq have been addressed: sharing oil revenue; the basic power relationship between Sunni, Shia, and Kurd; the shape of the country—strong central government or loose federation; what's the state of Iran or the status of Kirkuk? We are keeping the lid on things now, we are the glue holding things together. Nobody likes us there, but nobody wants us to leave immediately.
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Tell that to McCain and his like who think the surge was a masterful success... I think Obama realizes the surge failed and doesn't have any illusions that our pull-out will leave behind a stable Iraq. He was calling for pull-out even when stability was at its worse. Perhaps he hopes the certaintly of our withdrawal will motivate more action, but I think he's willing to leave regardless of the consequences, as we eventually had to in Vietnam. Its called cutting losses.
Of course McCain and Republicans will then loudly claim that Obama's pull-out is the reason we lost and that he snatched defeat from the jaws of victory, etc. etc. All total bull, but just watch...
You 2 are morons. Terror is not a concept. Iraq was not about terror but telling you this is a waste of time. Like telling you it wasn't about oil (because it wasn't). The war has been fought with one arm tied behind our back. When you fight you need to be all in and we haven't been. The biggest problem in Iraq is that the people are cowards and once presented with an opportunity, they sat on it. It's like people who live in high crime areas who won't cooperate with the police but complain about them.
Somewhat moronic. If Obama is wrong so is McCain who just signed on to the plan along with Petreus et al...what is the point here?
somewhat moronic. If Obama is wrong so is McCain who just signed on to the plan and Petreus et al. What is the point here? This isn't about stability in Iraq, it's about U.S. interests which are to get the hell out of there as soon as possible.
I've read "Fiasco" and it's a great book. The problem is Iraq is already invaded. Now Obama must not let it fall back into chaos. Even though our military is bloated and too expensive, if Obama begins to draw down any of it, he will appear (to idiots who know nothing about budgets) to look weak on defense.
If you want to know what must be done, read the this author's books and also the "Blowback" trilogy by Chalmers Johnson.
thewoodman,
The "people" of Iraq are cowards....? Well, there you go then....So damn simple.
xnbainx,
The problem with the military's budget isn't the overall size of it, paritcularly the US Army and the Marine Corps...If anything, given the pace and posture that we maintain, it's not big enough.
The "problem" seems to be in the military industrial complex.....also known as the Good Idea Factory. A place where untold amounts of money goes to well....think up and produce untold amounts of weapon systems that will probably never see the light of day....
I can't say that he is wright or wrong. What I can say is we can not continue to push our troops to over extend. Too many fronts are coming upon us and we have to make some hard choices.
You have done it Benny Boy.
You've proven how stupid an American can be. I bet you've never lived abroad or know what it really feels like to be any other global citizen.
If your country is invaded by a foreign country, you would naturally defend your country against those invaders at all costs. If you've forgetten that fundamental idea, then you are a *expletive*.
Let them live their lives and let's go on repairing our own country.
If they are "defending themselves" explain why the overwhelming majority ARE NOT FROM IRAQ?!
Someone is actually criticizing Obama!!!!
Have they run out of Kool Aid?
The Iraq War was just another example of America's "OILigarchy" government continuing their exercise of hegemony in oil-rich nations. The war was a farce, Bush and Cheney are TRAITORS that need to be indicted. I am so sick of the rationalizations by the vested interests or false patriots that buy into the nationalistic propaganda. Barack is doing the right thing, and no amount of lies or media will change the mind of the American People who see through the obfuscation. It's time we own up as a nation that we've done some damn stupid things (electing Bush twice was one of the more heinous). Hopefully, Obama will learn from history (and "The Art of War") that all occupations eventually fail (unless, like our own original occupation of the native US by Western Europe, you commit genocide).
You are now on notice: those men and women who continue to support an evil agenda are being noticed by greater forces who will have no tolerance for the twisted materialistic elitism that seeks to control the world. The Earth will show you who's boss.
We'll be there forever or until the oil runs out if we wait for stability. It's time to get the rest of the world involved and getting out, and let the Iraqis manage their own business. If more than 50,000 troops are needed after 2010, we might as well make Iraq the seat of U.S. government.
Damned if he does and damned if he doesn't. Obama is now being praised by McCain and criticized by liberals in the matter of troop withdrawal.
Everyone has an opinion, but Obama's the one who has conferred with his military commanders. So let's go along with his opinion as Commander in Chief instead of that of someone like actor Sean Penn.
Personally, I'm concerned more right now about how long and how thoroughly we're going to keep on pandering our old pal Israel where Palestine is concerned.
Of course, we all know better than the guys in charge. Nevertheless, we put one guy in charge. And even though he's smart, very smart, we know we're smarter, don't we? There will come a time when we'll take the last soldier out of there. I'd like it to be as soon as possible. But, the guy I trust -- even though I'm so much smarter than him as you all are -- is doing his best to figure it all out. Of course, we have already figured it all out and are certain we know what should be done. But, we're busy with our lawns (fertilizer time soon), our favorite teams, that nice looking snatch down the hall. We just can't do it all. So, let's delegate it to Obama, even with all his shortcomings.
Fentro
Now that was an amazing, useless and senseless screed! Awesome!
AmiBlue
Exactly how much oil have we gotten from Iraq? When will the pipeline be completed?
Do we need to leave? Of course. But let's be realistic.
slimsoldier, so good to finally talk to a military guy who is rational. You are absolutely right about not having enough soldiers. And also about the military industrial complex.
However: America has over 700 bases around the world (not including secret ones not added on the yearly budget) all complete with officers clubs and golf courses. You are not a general I assume, so why are you having to buy yourself extra armor while that budget is spent on fixing up the 9th whole for some backseat general? I am trying to help us both out here.
The sole attribute of Obama that bothers me most is his almost constant tendency to reference weak 1980s sitcoms, as in: my stimulus package will be like Night Court to the GOP's Designing Women.
I don't get it.
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It is easier to negotiate and extension from American generals in charge than with Iran. That is what needs to be brought out. The US needs to see that both Iran and Israel are hostile beyond reason and they will grow up as soon as the US levels with them both. Clinton has already scolded Israel, to get real.
Let me correct the above. It is easier for Obama to negotiate extending war with his own generals than to level with Iran and Israel, both of who are still mad at the US and each other. None of these countries are at risk, but old grudges die hard.
HOW RIDICULOUS can you be !
the chattering class and the writing class disgust me.
I believe that FAILURE is NOT an OPTION.
But I became immediately SUSPICIOUS about that man RICKS statement immediately the same day OBAMA made that speech at Camp Lejeune.
HONESTLY all those who speak as IF IRAQ belongs to America .
ALSO may I say that as one who really wish America will have done a good job in Iraq by 2010 I CONSIDER YOUR article and Ricks words as a GREAT DISSERVICE TO AMERICA.
I REALIZE THE REAL REASON YOU ARE DOING THIS.
,
first of all let me say that if the Iraqi people ask us to stay in Iraq and PAY for OUR SERVICES.............the day SOF expires................WHY NOT ?
BENJAMIN sarlin..............i have never heard of you.........so i cannot say you are stupid.
But your piece here is profoundly stupid. and anti american
Read these blogs and you clearly see what the real problem is.....
Nobody, not even his staunchest supporters, have any idea what he should or even might do.......
That's what you get when you hire an executive with little experience and no track record.
I guess running a country is a lot tougher than the Harvard Law Review (something the Obama-bots had tried to sell me was good experience for the presidency) after all.....
Thank you.
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