Five Thirty Eight: Romney to Win MI, AZ

The New York Times's resident statistician, Nate Silver, has released his final projection for today's contentious primaries. Silver foresees Mitt Romney taking 39 percent of the vote in Michigan and Rick Santorum taking 38.1 percent. While the two seem to come very close, Silver predicts that Romney has a 57 percent chance of winning his home state, while Santorum's chance of winning the Michigan primary is only 43 percent. Ron Paul and Newt Gingrich are both given a zero percent chance of winning. The candidates' prospects in Arizona are much clearer. Silver gives Romney a 99 percent chance of winning, predicting he will take 43.4 percent of the vote, while Santorum will take only 27.3 percent.