Chances of nomination: 99.9%
With just a few weeks left in the year, the Scott Rudin-produced, David Fincher-directed film about the
founding of the Facebook empire is not only a lock for a Best Picture nomination, it also stands about a 50 percent chance of winning. Its most significant competition is
The King's Speech, and chances are
The Social Network screenwriter Aaron Sorkin will collect a little gold man for Best Adapted Screenplay.
It's an ambitious piece of work, filled with great performances and great dialogue—it even had a strong showing at the box office ($90 million and counting), which gives the academy the chance to have its cake and eat it too. One thing working against it? There isn't a
leading character the audience can root for. As one Tinseltown player puts it,
"The Social Network has at its core a big black hole, and that can be a problem for academy members, who almost always vote with their hearts instead of their heads."