For freshman TV series, surviving that first year and landing a renewal is a Herculean task. (In May, the broadcast networks brought back only one third of last season’s new crop.) But then, the real struggle begins, as a show’s second season is often its make-or-break year. After a season’s worth of growing pains and tweaking under its belt, will the series make the leap and fully realize its potential, as Scandal and New Girl gloriously did last year, or will it hit the dreaded sophomore slump and watch that initial promise implode, as was the case with Revenge, Up All Night, and Smash? We look at 16 returning second-year series and predict which shows will surge this season—and which will slump.